Crypto Downturn a Buying Opportunity: BitMEX Founder Says ‘Buy in May, Go Away’

Arthur Hayes, the founder of popular

cryptocurrency

derivatives trading platform BitMEX, has recently shared his analysis of the recent turmoil in the cryptocurrency markets. He predicts a local bottom has been hit and suggests upcoming rangebound action.

热门加密货币衍生品交易平台 bitmex 的创始人 arthur hayes 最近分享了他对加密货币市场近期动荡的分析。他预测市场已经触底，并暗示市场即将出现区间波动。

In a post titled “Mayday” on the BitMEX blog, Hayes attributed the volatility seen in the cryptocurrency space to a confluence of factors that included the conclusion of the U.S. tax season, anxieties surrounding potential Federal Reserve policy changes, Bitcoins recent halving event, and stagnant growth in assets under management for spot U.S.

Bitcoin exchange

-traded funds (ETFs).

在 bitmex 博客上题为“mayday”的帖子中，海耶斯将加密货币领域的波动归因于多种因素，包括美国税收季节的结束、对美联储潜在政策变化的担忧、比特币最近的减半事件以及现货美国比特币交易所交易基金（etf）管理的资产增长停滞。

Hayes revealed he views the recent downturn as a necessary correction for speculative excesses and suggested that “tourists” will likely sit out the upcoming recovery, while experienced investors will HODL and potentially accumulate more established assets like Bitcoin and Ether, and potentially take advantage of “high-beta” (more volatile) cryptocurrencies like Dog Wif Hat and other memecoins.

海耶斯透露，他认为最近的经济低迷是对投机过度的必要调整，并表示“游客”可能会对即将到来的复苏袖手旁观，而经验丰富的投资者则会囤积并可能积累比特币和以太币等更成熟的资产，并可能利用“高贝塔”（波动性更大）的加密货币，如 dog wif hat 和其他模因币。

A central theme in Hayes‘ analysis is the Federal Reserve’s recent adjustments to its quantitative tightening (QT) program. Initially aiming to reduce bond purchases by $95 billion per month, the Fed has scaled this back to $60 billion, something Hayes interprets as a disguised form of quantitative easing, injecting an additional $35 billion per month back into the dollar liquidity pool.

海耶斯分析的一个核心主题是美联储最近对其量化紧缩 (qt) 计划的调整。美联储最初的目标是每月减少 950 亿美元的债券购买量，现在已将这一数字缩减至 600 亿美元，海耶斯将此解读为变相量化宽松，即每月向美元流动性池额外注入 350 亿美元。

He argues that when combined with other measures, this reduction in QT effectively increases the stimulus provided to global financial markets. Hayes also examined recent actions by the U.S. Treasury Department, led by Secretary Janet Yellen and dissected the Treasurys Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) which forecasts borrowing and cash balances for upcoming quarters.

他认为，如果与其他措施相结合，qt 的减少将有效地增加对全球金融市场的刺激。海耶斯还研究了美国财政部（由财政部长珍妮特·耶伦领导）最近采取的行动，并分析了美国财政部的季度再融资公告 (qra)，该公告预测了未来几个季度的借款和现金余额。

The QRA for the second quarter of the year projects borrowing $243 billion, $41 billion above prior estimates due to lower-than-expected tax revenue. Hayes suggests this increased Treasury issuance could lead to higher long-term interest rates and speculated that Yellen might counter this with yield curve control measures, a scenario that could potentially trigger a significant rally in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

qra 预计今年第二季度的借款额将达到 2430 亿美元，由于税收收入低于预期，比之前的估计高出 410 亿美元。海耶斯认为，国债发行量的增加可能会导致长期利率上升，并推测耶伦可能会采取收益率曲线控制措施来应对这种情况，这种情况可能会引发比特币和其他加密货币的大幅上涨。

The recent collapse of Republic First Bank also entered into Hayes analysis, as he criticized the swift response by monetary authorities, which ensured all depositors were compensated.

共和第一银行最近的倒闭也引起了海耶斯的分析，他批评货币当局的迅速反应，以确保所有储户都得到补偿。

While this may appear reassuring, Hayes argued it masks underlying vulnerabilities within the U.S. banking system and added that this “safety net” effectively guarantees even uninsured deposits, leading to a form of hidden money printing by the government which could fuel further inflationary pressures. He wrote:

虽然这看起来令人放心，但海耶斯认为，这掩盖了美国银行体系的潜在弱点，并补充说，这种“安全网”实际上为没有保险的存款提供了保障，导致政府出现一种隐性印钞行为，这可能会加剧通胀压力。他写道：

Like the other stealth money printing policies discussed in this essay, there is no massive liquidity injection today. However, we now know with full confidence that trillions of contingent liabilities have been added to the Feds balance sheet, which will be funded with printed money.

就像本文讨论的其他隐形印钞政策一样，目前没有大规模的流动性注入。然而，我们现在完全有信心地知道，美联储的资产负债表上已经增加了数万亿美元的或有负债，这些负债将由印钞来支付。

Unfazed by the recent market turbulence, Hayes advocates for active investment, creating a section titled “buy in May, go away” in a play on the popular financial saying “sell in May and go away” that is based on stocks historical underperformance between May and October.

海耶斯并未对近期的市场动荡感到担忧，他主张积极投资，并创建了一个名为“五月买入，走开”的专栏，这个专栏借用了流行的金融说法“五月卖出，走开”，而这个说法是基于 5 月至 10 月股市的历史表现不佳而得出的。

Hayes recommended investors reender the market as the “slow addition of billions of dollars of liquidity each month will dampen negative price movement from here on out,” and while he doesn‘t expected “ crypto to fully realize the recent US monetary announcements’ inflationary nature immediately, I expect prices to bottom, chop, and begin a slow grind higher. ”

海耶斯建议投资者重新进入市场，因为“每月缓慢增加数十亿美元的流动性将抑制今后价格的负面走势”，虽然他并不认为“加密货币会立即完全实现最近美国货币政策声明的通胀性质，但我预计价格将触底、震荡，并开始缓慢走高。”

Per his words the “recent intense puke” provides him an opportunity to buy Solana and “doggie coins for momentum trading position,” while longer-term position will see him “identify other tokens” he believes are undervalued.

按照他的话来说，“最近的强烈呕吐”为他提供了购买 solana 和“狗狗币以获得动量交易头寸”的机会，而长期头寸将让他“识别出其他代币”，他认为这些代币被低估了。

He noted that after accumulating this month he will “ set it, forget it, and wait for the market to appreciate the inflationary nature of the recent US monetary policy announcements.”

他指出，在本月积累之后，他将“设定目标，忘掉它，等待市场认识到最近美国货币政策声明的通胀性质。”

In his footnotes, he suggested he believes Bitcoin hit a local low earlier this week below the $58,000 mark and believes it will now rally to surpass $60,000 and enter a range-bound period between $60,000 and $70,000 until August.

在他的脚注中，他表示他相信比特币本周早些时候跌至 58,000 美元以下的局部低点，并相信现在它将反弹至超过 60,000 美元，并在 8 月份之前进入 60,000 美元至 70,000 美元之间的区间波动期。

Featured image via Pixabay.

特色图片来自 pixabay。