Has Bitcoin (BTC) Halving Event Priced in？ Which Direction Will the Price Go？

According to Matt Balensweig, Head of BitGo Go Network, the upcoming Bitcoin halving event will bring about “real changes” in the supply and demand mechanics of BTC. Balensweig's comments add new perspective to ongoing rumors about whether the halving is already priced in.

“Cryptocurrency investors and traders constantly ask the question ‘is the halving priced in？’ but it tends not to be priced in every cycle,” Balensweig said. He drew parallels with the spot Bitcoin ETF approval, which many investors believe is priced out. However, the Bitcoin price rose significantly in the first 60 days of ETF trading, indicating that the market was unable to fully predict the impact.

Balensweig explained that certain events trigger concrete changes in the supply and demand dynamics in exchange order books. He argued that the upcoming halving will exemplify this trend:

“These specific events lead to real changes in the mechanics of supply and demand in exchange order books. ”When spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved, there was committed capital ready to flow into these products, causing buy-side pressure and therefore impacting the price, regardless of what trading activity looked like before the event.

Ahead of the upcoming halving, investors will try to position themselves. However, Balensweig said that “assuming that the daily supply will decrease in the exchange order books when the event occurs and the demand will remain constant, this will again lead to buy-side pressure because the sell-side is weaker.”

*This is not investment advice.