Kraken VP of Growth Explains Why This Crypto Bull Run Is Unlike Any Other

The current Bitcoin bull run demonstrates unique characteristics that set it apart from previous cycles.

当前的比特币牛市展现出与之前周期不同的独特特征。

While the inherent volatility of crypto markets remains, a blend of regulatory shifts, technological advancements, and macroeconomic factors suggests the industry is entering a period with the potential to reshape the future of digital assets.

尽管加密货币市场固有的波动性仍然存在，但监管转变、技术进步和宏观经济因素的结合表明，该行业正在进入一个有可能重塑数字资产未来的时期。

Unprecedented Demand Forces Behind Bitcoin

比特币背后前所未有的需求力量

At the core of this transformation is the anticipated impact of the Bitcoin halving. Historically, the halving has been a precursor to significant price appreciation for Bitcoin, which catalyzes broader market rallies. This phenomenon, tied to the reduction in new Bitcoin supply, has previously ignited periods of intense speculation and investment.

这一转变的核心是比特币减半的预期影响。从历史上看，减半是比特币价格大幅上涨的先兆，从而催化了更广泛的市场反弹。这种现象与新比特币供应量的减少有关，此前曾引发过一段时期的激烈投机和投资。

However, the current cycle is diverging in key ways. Unlike past bull runs, the fluctuations in Bitcoins price are becoming less extreme. This is indicative of a maturation of the market and potentially signals more stable growth ahead.

然而，当前的周期在关键方面出现了分歧。与过去的牛市不同，比特币价格的波动正变得不那么极端。这表明市场已经成熟，并可能预示着未来增长更加稳定。

Despite the subdued price appreciation, the CEO of Factor LLC, Peter Brandt, and Managing Partner at Fundstrat, Tom Lee, believe Bitcoin could still surpass $150,000. For this reason, Matthew Howells-Barby, VP of Growth at Kraken, believes the new pricing trend actually bolsters Bitcoins value proposition.

尽管价格升值缓慢，factor llc 首席执行官 peter brandt 和 fundstrat 执行合伙人 tom lee 相信比特币仍可能超过 15 万美元。因此，kraken 增长副总裁 matthew howells-barby 认为，新的定价趋势实际上增强了比特币的价值主张。

“While theres a reduction in overall volatility, Bitcoin is still in the category of risk assets and investors of all sizes will view this as a potentially high-return investment. The more cycles that Bitcoin survives and goes on to outperform, the more confidence this breeds in longer-term investors,” Howells-Barby told BeInCrypto.

“虽然整体波动性有所下降，但比特币仍属于风险资产类别，各种规模的投资者都会将其视为潜在的高回报投资。比特币存活下来并继续跑赢大盘的周期越多，长期投资者的信心就越大。”howells-barby 告诉 beincrypto。

This trend, coupled with the success of spot

Bitcoin exchange

-traded funds (ETFs), exemplifies the growing investor confidence and institutional acceptance of cryptocurrencies as a legitimate asset class. Indeed, spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted over $7.4 billion in net inflows within the first 7 weeks of trading. Notable products such as Blackrocks IBIT ETF quickly climbed the ranks of top ETFs by inflow.

这一趋势，加上现货比特币交易所交易基金（etf）的成功，体现了投资者信心的增强以及机构对加密货币作为合法资产类别的接受程度。事实上，现货比特币 etf 在交易的前 7 周内就吸引了超过 74 亿美元的净流入。 blackrocks ibit etf 等著名产品的流入量迅速攀升至顶级 etf 的行列。

Together, the recently launched spot Bitcoin spot ETFs have over $50 billion in assets under management, according to the co-founder of Reflexivity Research, Will Clemente. Consequently, renowned industry figures like Layah Heilpern believe that spot Bitcoin ETFs have changed the market structure, and “no one knows what is coming next.”

reflexivity research 联合创始人 will clemente 表示，最近推出的比特币现货 etf 管理的资产总计超过 500 亿美元。因此，像 layah heilpern 这样的知名行业人士认为，现货比特币 etf 已经改变了市场结构，“没有人知道接下来会发生什么”。

What is certain is that this surge of institutional interest, long anticipated by market observers, has finally materialized. According to Howells-Barby, this development lays a solid foundation for the ongoing Bitcoin bull run. It has the potential to gain even more momentum with the entry of new participants into the market.

可以肯定的是，市场观察人士期待已久的机构兴趣激增终于成为现实。 howells-barby 表示，这一发展为正在进行的比特币牛市奠定了坚实的基础。随着新参与者进入市场，它有可能获得更大的动力。

“Whats even more encouraging is that many RIA networks and major brokers are still yet to list spot Bitcoin ETFs. This is coming and will create another wave of buying from pent-up demand,” Howells-Barby added.

“更令人鼓舞的是，许多 ria 网络和主要经纪商尚未列出现货比特币 etf。这即将到来，并将因被压抑的需求而引发另一波购买浪潮，”豪威尔斯-巴比补充道。

Bitcoin Holdings by ETFs. Source: CryptoQuant

etf 持有的比特币。来源：cryptoquant

Moreover, the crypto market benefits from a significantly more positive macroeconomic outlook. Analysts believe inflation rates have peaked and anticipate lower interest rates, likely leading to increased liquidity.

此外，加密市场受益于更加积极的宏观经济前景。分析师认为，通胀率已见顶，预计利率将会下降，这可能会导致流动性增加。

Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, recently informed lawmakers that he and his colleagues are committed to such a goal. He also reiterated that interest rate reductions will still be possible in the upcoming months.

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔最近告知立法者，他和他的同事致力于实现这一目标。他还重申，未来几个月仍有可能降息。

“[Rate cuts] really will depend on the path of the economy. Our focus is on maximum employment and price stability, and the incoming data as they affect the outlook, and those are the things well be looking at. We are just going to keep our heads down and do our jobs and try to deliver what the public is expecting from us,” Powell said.

“[降息]实际上取决于经济的发展方向。我们的重点是就业最大化和价格稳定，以及影响前景的即将到来的数据，这些都是我们需要关注的事情。鲍威尔表示：”我们只是埋头苦干，做好我们的工作，努力实现公众对我们的期望。

Howells-Barby believes that the improving economic environment is conducive to further investments in digital assets. He maintains that retail and institutional investors seek higher returns in a low-interest-rate environment.

howells-barby认为，经济环境的改善有利于数字资产的进一步投资。他坚持认为，散户和机构投资者在低利率环境中寻求更高的回报。

“Its easy to forget that much of the recent price action in both crypto and equities has happened before any fiscal easing. As rates come down, more liquidity will enter the markets and this should only be positive for assets like Bitcoin,” Howells-Barby emphasized.

“人们很容易忘记，最近加密货币和股票的大部分价格走势都是在任何财政宽松之前发生的。随着利率下降，更多的流动性将进入市场，这只会对比特币等资产有利。”豪威尔斯-巴比强调。

Altcoins Ready for Upgrades and Regulatory Clarity

山寨币已做好升级和监管清晰度的准备

Technological innovations within the crypto ecosystem also play a crucial role in this unique bull run. The Ethereum networks upcoming Dencun upgrade promises to reduce costs and increase efficiency for Layer 2 rollups. It focuses on scalability through proto-danksharding, bringing forward the concept of blob-carrying transactions.

加密生态系统内的技术创新在这次独特的牛市中也发挥着至关重要的作用。以太坊网络即将进行的 dencun 升级有望降低第 2 层汇总的成本并提高效率。它专注于通过原始danksharding实现可扩展性，提出了携带blob的交易的概念。

This innovative method significantly reduces data storage requirements at the consensus layer. It offloads data storage and uses hashes for reference, streamlining the transaction verification process. Ultimately, this drastically reduces the data storage burden since blobs are temporary and expire after roughly three weeks.

这种创新方法显着降低了共识层的数据存储需求。它减轻了数据存储的负担，并使用哈希值作为参考，简化了交易验证过程。最终，这极大地减少了数据存储负担，因为 blob 是临时的，并且会在大约三周后过期。

These advancements are significant, especially for Ethereum‘s Layer 2 (L2) solutions. The Ethereum upgrade promises to reduce transaction fees by at least a factor of 10, heralding a major leap forward in the network’s scalability and cost-efficiency.

这些进步意义重大，特别是对于以太坊的第 2 层 (l2) 解决方案而言。以太坊升级有望将交易费用降低至少 10 倍，预示着网络可扩展性和成本效率的重大飞跃。

“The long-awaited upgrade is forecast to cut costs for Ethereums L2s by at least 10x, making Ethereum more scalable and efficient. By leveraging rollups and temporary blob storage, the developers aim to increase throughput and reduce fees for users,” Head of Research at IntoTheBlock, Lucas Outumuro, explained.

“期待已久的升级预计将把以太坊 l2 的成本降低至少 10 倍，使以太坊更具可扩展性和效率。通过利用汇总和临时 blob 存储，开发人员的目标是提高吞吐量并降低用户费用。”intotheblock 研究主管 lucas outumuro 解释道。

Read more: Ethereum (ETH) Price Prediction 2024 2025 2030

了解更多：以太坊 (eth) 价格预测 2024 2025 2030

Ethereum Transaction Fees. Source: Glassnode

以太坊交易费用。来源：glassnode

The Dencun upgrade, along with advancements in parallelization and modularization by protocols like Sei and Celestia, is expected to drive a new wave of interest and investment in crypto.

dencun 升级，以及 sei 和 celestia 等协议在并行化和模块化方面的进步，预计将推动人们对加密货币的新一波兴趣和投资。

“The recent interest in modular scalability, led by the likes of Celestia, Avail, EigenLayer, and many more, has presented a new slew of options for driving down end-user costs and creating fertile ground for developers to build in. The upcoming Dencun upgrade is another milestone in the journey towards proto-danksharding, but theres still a long way to go,” Howells-Barby stated.

“最近，在 celestia、avail、eigenlayer 等公司的带领下，人们对模块化可扩展性产生了浓厚的兴趣，这提供了一系列新的选择，可以降低最终用户的成本，并为开发人员的构建创造肥沃的土壤。即将推出的 dencun升级是原始丹麦分片之旅的另一个里程碑，但还有很长的路要走。”howells-barby 表示。

Furthermore, the crypto industry is witnessing unprecedented regulatory clarity and engagement. Efforts to establish frameworks like the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) in the European Union signal a move towards a more regulated and secure environment.

此外，加密行业正在见证前所未有的监管清晰度和参与度。欧盟建立加密资产市场 (mica) 等框架的努力标志着朝着更加规范和安全的环境迈进。

Such regulatory advancements provide a layer of certainty and trust that was previously lacking. Therefore, it paves the way for broader adoption and integration of cryptocurrencies into the global financial system.

这种监管进步提供了以前所缺乏的确定性和信任层。因此，它为更广泛地采用加密货币并将其融入全球金融体系铺平了道路。

The current crypto bull run is characterized by reducing volatility, institutional adoption, technological advancements, and a favorable macroeconomic backdrop. These factors, together with increasing regulatory clarity, suggest a pivotal moment that could define the future trajectory of digital assets.

当前的加密货币牛市的特点是波动性降低、机构采用、技术进步和有利的宏观经济背景。这些因素，再加上日益明确的监管规定，表明了一个可以定义数字资产未来发展轨迹的关键时刻。

“Several sovereign states have begun accumulating crypto assets and integrating them into their financial systems. As clearer regulatory frameworks arrive around the world, this will only increase. Theres also the fact that 130 countries around the world – representing 98% of global GDP – are exploring the development of a central bank digital currency (CBDC). All of this is happening while traditional financial institutions are trying to chase the flood of capital coming in via the Bitcoin spot ETFs,” Howells-Barby concluded.

“一些主权国家已经开始积累加密资产并将其整合到本国的金融系统中。随着世界各地出现更清晰的监管框架，这种情况只会增加。还有一个事实是，全球 130 个国家（占全球 gdp 的 98%）正在探索开发央行数字货币（cbdc）。所有这一切都发生在传统金融机构试图追逐通过比特币现货 etf 涌入的大量资本之际。”howells-barby 总结道。

The unique confluence of these elements reflects the distinct nature of this Bitcoin bull run, indicating it may be unlike any other seen before.

这些元素的独特融合反映了本次比特币牛市的独特性质，表明它可能与之前见过的任何其他牛市不同。

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