Presidential Election Puts El Salvadors Bitcoin Future At A Crossroads

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On Sunday, February 4, El Salvador‘s presidential election will determine whether Nayib Bukele and his revolutionary experiment with Bitcoin will have a continued presence in the nation’s future.

2 月 4 日（周日），萨尔瓦多总统选举将决定 nayib bukele 及其革命性的比特币实验是否会继续留在该国的未来。

Since Nayib Bukele became President of El Salvador in 2019, he has enjoyed a fairly broad base of support; he was the first man since 1984 to win independently of the nation‘s two major political parties. The topic that has taken his administration to a subject of worldwide discussion, however, has been his support of Bitcoin. Bukele made world history in September 2021 when he raised it to the status of legal currency, and El Salvador’s radical experiment with Bitcoin has captivated interest worldwide ever since.

纳伊布·布克莱2019年就任萨尔瓦多总统以来，得到了相当广泛的支持。他是自1984年以来第一位独立于美国两大政党获胜的人。然而，让他的政府成为全世界讨论的话题的是他对比特币的支持。布克莱于 2021 年 9 月创造了世界历史，他将比特币提升为法定货币，萨尔瓦多对比特币的激进实验从那时起就引起了全世界的兴趣。

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Naturally, a large deal of this interest has been negative, especially from the financial and media establishment worldwide. The Bitcoin law went into effect mere weeks before bitcoin fell from its all-time highs, and this led to no small amount of speculation that the government would lose huge sums as a result. More pressingly, financial institutions like the IMF also repeatedly urged El Salvador to give up on its project, raising the possibility that the country might lose access to loans. However, as of 2024, not only have the government‘s investments into bitcoin stockpiles gone firmly into the black, but major financial institutions have also grudgingly accepted the strength of the Salvadoran economy. The nation’s critics have been disproven from this angle, but there‘s one more immediate test on the horizon: the matter of Bukele’s re-election.

当然，这种兴趣很大一部分是负面的，尤其是来自全球金融和媒体机构的兴趣。比特币法在比特币从历史高点下跌前几周生效，这引发了不小的猜测，认为政府将因此损失巨额资金。更紧迫的是，国际货币基金组织等金融机构也一再敦促萨尔瓦多放弃其项目，这增加了该国失去贷款的可能性。然而，截至 2024 年，不仅政府对比特币库存的投资已实现盈利，而且主要金融机构也勉强接受了萨尔瓦多经济的强劲势头。从这个角度来看，这个国家的批评者已经被证明是错误的，但还有一个更直接的考验即将到来：布克莱的连任问题。

In an interview on January 31, Bukele‘s running mate Felix Ulloa went to great lengths to stress that a re-election will mean a firm re-commitment to Bitcoin. Although Ulloa revealed that the IMF has quietly been repeating its requests to de-list bitcoin in El Salvador, he was insistent that these pleas are falling on deaf ears. A particular source of strength, he claimed to Reuters, was the takeoff of the ETF in the United States. A major victory like this means for him that Bitcoin “enjoys the greatest credibility in the entire world.” Not only did Ulloa claim that the existing laws in support of Bitcoin “will be maintained”, but he also added that the proposed Bitcoin City'' infrastructure project continues to enjoy the government’s full support.

在 1 月 31 日的采访中，布克莱的竞选搭档 felix ulloa 竭尽全力强调，连任将意味着对比特币的重新坚定承诺。尽管乌略亚透露，国际货币基金组织一直在悄悄地重复要求萨尔瓦多将比特币下架，但他坚称这些请求被置若罔闻。他向路透社声称，一个特别的力量来源是 etf 在美国的起飞。这样的重大胜利对他来说意味着比特币“在全世界享有最大的信誉”。 ulloa不仅声称支持比特币的现有法律“将得到维持”，而且他还补充说，拟议的比特币城基础设施项目继续得到政府的全力支持。

As far as the polls are concerned, a wide variety of international press agencies all agree that Bukele‘s victory is practically guaranteed. The centerpiece of his popularity, it seems, actually has nothing to do with Bitcoin, as large numbers of citizens remain unconvinced. Instead, it seems his sweeping crackdowns on gang activity are the main reason, causing El Salvador’s murder rate to plummet from a shocking 105 murders per 100k residents in 2015 to 7.8 per 100k, the lowest in the region. In other words, his voters love him extensively, but as of yet they remain ambivalent on the Bitcoin initiative. Fickle support like this could indeed be dangerous, as future economic difficulties could turn this indifference into outright rejection. However, as far as all polling suggests, Bukele will have another term to convince his people.

就民意调查而言，多家国际新闻机构都一致认为布克莱的胜利几乎是板上钉钉的事情。他受欢迎的核心似乎实际上与比特币无关，因为大量公民仍然不相信。相反，他对帮派活动的全面镇压似乎是导致萨尔瓦多谋杀率从2015年每10万居民105起谋杀案暴跌至每10万居民7.8起，为该地区最低的主要原因。换句话说，他的选民非常爱他，但到目前为止，他们对比特币倡议仍然持矛盾态度。像这样变化无常的支持确实可能是危险的，因为未来的经济困难可能会将这种冷漠变成彻底的拒绝。然而，据所有民意调查显示，布克莱将有另一个任期来说服他的人民。

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Luckily, there are extensive plans in place to attempt to deepen these connections in multiple spheres of life. The usage of an international currency like bitcoin has attracted the flow of international spending, with tourism to the nation spiking in recent years. In addition to these more casual inflows of cash, the government has also encouraged more permanent immigration by allowing foreign nationals to directly purchase citizenship with bitcoin investment. These attempts to raise foreign dollars can definitely impact the nations citizens, but there are also efforts underway to directly create jobs in this burgeoning industry.

幸运的是，我们已经制定了广泛的计划来尝试在生活的多个领域加深这些联系。比特币等国际货币的使用吸引了国际消费的流动，近年来该国的旅游业激增。除了这些更随意的现金流入之外，政府还通过允许外国人直接通过比特币投资购买公民身份来鼓励更多的永久移民。这些筹集外汇的尝试肯定会对本国公民产生影响，但也正在努力在这个新兴行业直接创造就业机会。

Since October, El Salvador has partnered with several firms to create mining infrastructure powered by geothermal energy. Bitcoin mining is a growing market worldwide, and the use of green energy easily sidesteps the most common refrain against it. These goals of creating domestic jobs and attracting foreign investment both fall under the umbrella of the aforementioned “Bitcoin City” project, a plan with the long-term goal of fostering all the multifarious jobs in software development and blockchain engineering associated with the digital asset space.

自十月以来，萨尔瓦多已与多家公司合作建立由地热能驱动的采矿基础设施。比特币挖矿是全球不断增长的市场，而绿色能源的使用很容易避开最常见的反对声音。这些创造国内就业机会和吸引外国投资的目标都属于上述“比特币城”项目的范畴，该计划的长期目标是促进与数字资产领域相关的软件开发和区块链工程领域的所有多种就业机会。

If El Salvador‘s voters do decide to re-elect Bukele on February 4, he’ll have his work cut out for him to ensure that Bitcoin is an enduring presence. As of yet, many of his citizens are either earning extra revenue from international travelers interested in Bitcoin, or involved in building the new pools to mine it. Although the economy is growing, this has not been sufficient to win his people over to the full possibilities of a radical new economic future. Nevertheless, he has won their love anyway, as his government has continually enjoyed fierce public support. In other words, re-election is very likely, and the experiment will continue for the five years of his second term. The major challenge of these five years, however, will be to ensure that Bitcoin will become a fact of life for his people. Still, as daunting of a task as this may seem, he has already been working on normalizing Bitcoin in a wide variety of ways.

如果萨尔瓦多选民确实决定在 2 月 4 日再次选举布克莱，那么他将面临艰巨的任务，以确保比特币能够持久存在。到目前为止，他的许多公民要么从对比特币感兴趣的国际旅行者那里获得额外收入，要么参与建设新的矿池来开采比特币。尽管经济在增长，但这还不足以让他的人民接受激进的新经济未来的全部可能性。尽管如此，他还是赢得了他们的爱戴，因为他的政府一直得到公众的强烈支持。也就是说，连任的可能性很大，而这个实验将持续到他第二任期的五年。然而，这五年的主要挑战将是确保比特币成为他的人民生活的现实。尽管如此，尽管这似乎是一项艰巨的任务，但他已经在以各种方式致力于比特币的正常化。

Just as one example of this, last year the country partnered with one of its largest distributors, enabling huge numbers of businesses to begin accepting bitcoin for the most mundane transactions. Furthermore, these normalization efforts have extended beyond El Salvador‘s borders. El Salvador needs the support of its citizens, but it also wishes to encourage broader support from other nations. The Central African Republic (CAR) was directly inspired by El Salvador when it briefly became the second nation to adopt bitcoin as a legal currency. However, this effort was simply impossible to sustain in a country where around 90% of citizens do not have internet access, and it was shuttered in 2023. CAR was not the only country to be influenced by Bukele’s government, as he actually sent a team of “Bitcoin Ambassadors” to Argentina upon the election of its newest President last November. Outreach efforts like this will go a long way to ensure that El Salvador is the first country to accept bitcoin as legal tender, but wont be the last.

举一个例子，去年该国与其最大的分销商之一合作，使大量企业开始接受比特币进行最普通的交易。此外，这些正常化努力已经超出了萨尔瓦多的边界。萨尔瓦多需要其公民的支持，但它也希望鼓励其他国家更广泛的支持。中非共和国（car）直接受到萨尔瓦多的启发，短暂成为第二个采用比特币作为法定货币的国家。然而，在一个大约 90% 的公民无法接入互联网的国家，这一努力根本不可能维持下去，并于 2023 年被关闭。中非共和国并不是唯一受到布克莱政府影响的国家，因为他实际上派出了一支团队去年 11 月阿根廷当选新任总统后，该国任命了“比特币大使”。像这样的推广工作将大大有助于确保萨尔瓦多成为第一个接受比特币作为法定货币的国家，但不会是最后一个。

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Some of these initiatives highlight the way that El Salvador‘s Bitcoin project has radically different aims from the ETF battle in the United States, even though Salvadorans like Vice President Ulloa are naturally heartened by its victory. The ETF is a financial instrument that allows ordinary Americans some extra opportunities to indirectly profit from Bitcoin’s success, while Bitcoin has a radical vision for anyone in the world to take control of their economic fortunes. Nayib Bukele has shown a real interest in fostering Bitcoin as a part of everyday life, as shown by the variety of ways he‘s encouraged economic development and his attempts at international outreach. Our community needs fighters like those who pursued the ETF battle, but it’s important to remember that Bitcoin means so much more than a way to earn fiat currency. If Bukele has the chance to really embed Bitcoin in El Salvador‘s society, it’ll show the world what kind of success Bitcoin can offer us all.

其中一些举措突显了萨尔瓦多的比特币项目与美国的 etf 之战有着截然不同的目标，尽管副总统乌略亚等萨尔瓦多人自然对其胜利感到振奋。 etf 是一种金融工具，它让普通美国人有一些额外的机会从比特币的成功中间接获利，而比特币则有一个激进的愿景，让世界上的任何人都能掌控自己的经济财富。纳伊布·布克莱 (nayib bukele) 对促进比特币成为日常生活的一部分表现出了真正的兴趣，他鼓励经济发展的各种方式以及他在国际推广方面的尝试就表明了这一点。我们的社区需要像那些参与 etf 之战的斗士，但重要的是要记住，比特币的意义不仅仅是一种赚取法定货币的方式。如果布克莱有机会真正将比特币融入萨尔瓦多社会，它将向世界展示比特币可以为我们所有人带来什么样的成功。