- Why the 50-week moving average matters
- One major exception
Bitcoin has managed to reclaim one of its most closely watched long-term technical levels after spending nearly a year below it.
The largest cryptocurrency closed the week ending Sept. 20 at $81,159. It has now surged above its 50-week moving average of $78,786, according to a new chart shared by Galaxy Research.
This is Bitcoins first weekly close above the indicator in 45 weeks. The previous one occurred on Nov. 9, 2025. This happened shortly after Bitcoin reached its current all-time high above $126,000 in October.
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Historically, reclaiming the 50-week moving average has been viewed as rather strong confirmation that a Bitcoin bear-market bottom might be in.
Why the 50-week moving average matters
The 50-week moving average smooths out roughly a year of Bitcoins weekly closing prices.
During sustained bull markets, Bitcoin has generally remained above the level (and the opposite is true during bear markets).
Galaxy Research has described the 50-week average as a “ceiling” during Bitcoins major downturns. Losing this level usually triggers a substantial correction.
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The latest close is notable because Bitcoin had remained below the line on every weekly close since November.
At $81,159, Sundays closing price was approximately 3% above the $78,786 moving average, meaning that the gap is not marginal.
Bitcoin is also substantially above its much slower 200-week moving average, which currently sits at $65,487.
One major exception
Among five completed Bitcoin bear markets in which BTC lost the 50-week moving average, four saw their ultimate bear-market low occur before the first successful weekly reclaim of the indicator.
Galaxy also identified 13 weekly crossings back above the 50-week average during completed bear markets. Only two were subsequently followed by a lower price low.
However, during the 2021-2022 downturn, Bitcoin temporarily reclaimed the 50-week moving average twice, but neither breakout marked the end of the bear market.
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BTC remains roughly 36% below the record of about $126,000 reached on Oct. 6, 2025.
If Bitcoin can remain above the roughly $79,000 area while the 50-week moving average continues to flatten or decline, the level could potentially switch from resistance into support.