Will the Fed Lead Global Central Banks in Raising Rates—and Will Bitcoin Start With a 6 Again?

The Feds sixth rate-setting meeting of the year is now underway!  The final rate decision will be announced at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Waller at 2:30 a.m.  According to the latest CME FedWatch pricing, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike has surged to 92.3%, making it almost a done deal!  Meanwhile, just before the meeting, U.S. President Donald Trump once again called for lower rates, saying: “The United States should have the lowest interest rates in the world.”  Waller is now sitting in a position where there is no safe answer:  Hike rates, and Trump will explode.Keep rates unchanged, and the market will explode.  With a 92.3% probability already priced in, leaving rates unchanged could actually become the “surprise.”  This is not only one of the toughest decisions Waller has faced since taking office—it could also become Bitcoins most important pricing moment of 2026 so far.  BTC is still moving back and forth between roughly $76,500 and $82,000. The consolidation has lasted nearly a month. And the longer the market stays trapped in a narrow range, the greater the probability of a violent breakout or breakdown. As the old saying goes: “The longer the consolidation, the bigger

5 hours agoDeep Dive

WikiBit Exchange Exit Risk Ranking #25: CoinEx — A Bitmain-Linked Tech Veteran. Can It Survive a Sanctions Investigation?

Introduction: A Veteran Exchange with Strong Technical Foundations but Serious Compliance Weaknesses  In the first 24 editions, we investigated a wide range of exchanges, from HashKey to Hotcoin. For the 25th edition, we are taking a closer look at an exchange with a striking mismatch between technical capabilities and compliance risks: CoinEx.  CoinExs credentials are impressive when it comes to technology: founded in 2017, backed by Bitmain, built by the original ViaBTC mining-pool team, with founder Haipo Yang reportedly writing the entire ViaBTC codebase himself. The exchange claims to serve more than 10 million users across 200+ countries, support more than 1,300 cryptocurrencies, publish monthly Merkle Tree-based Proof of Reserves with reserve ratios consistently above 100%, and fully compensate users after a 2023 hack.  Sounds like the profile of a technically solid, user-focused veteran exchange, right?  But on the other side of the balance sheet is a major compliance red flag.  A major Wall Street Journal investigation in June 2026 reported that TRM Labs had traced more than $3.84 billion in transactions linked to sanctioned Iranian entities processed by CoinEx since 2019. Fund flows between CoinEx and Nobitex, Irans largest cryptocurrency exchange, reportedly reached $27 billion, while some funds were also found to overlap with

10 hours agoDeep Dive

Bitcoin ETFs just lost $463 million as the Fed puts BTC at risk of losing $75,000

US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) posted $462.7 million in weekly outflows, ending a three-week stretch of heavy investor demand.  Related Asset Bitcoin #1 BTC · $77,783.90 24-hour change: up 1.46% Loading price history… 24H Up 1.46% 7D Down 2.01% 30D Up 23.61%  The funds recorded withdrawals across all four trading sessions in the holiday-shortened week, marking their first weekly loss since mid-August.  SoSoValue data showed net withdrawals of $46.7 million Tuesday, the first trading day after the Labor Day holiday. Outflows accelerated to $120.2 million Wednesday and $282.6 million Thursday before easing to $13.3 million Friday.  The reversal remains modest compared with the preceding demand. Investors poured roughly $3.8 billion into the products over the previous three weeks as Bitcoin rallied briefly above $80,000, giving the cryptocurrency a steady source of buying during its August breakout.  That support has now stalled as the macro backdrop grows more difficult.  Ecoinometrics, a Bitcoin-focused research platform, said the run of negative sessions remains too short to establish a lasting reversal in ETF demand. But an extended streak would make it increasingly difficult for Bitcoin to hold above $75,000.  Bitcoin ETF Outflows (Source: Ecoinometrics)  The concern is less about $462.7 million leaving the funds in isolation than what happens if the

Yesterday 17:40Industry

South Korea investors seek two-year crypto tax delay

South Korean investors have secured the 50,000 signatures needed to send a petition seeking another crypto tax delay to the National Assembly for legislative review.  Summary50,000 signatures have triggered National Assembly review of a petition seeking another crypto tax delay.South Korea currently plans to tax qualifying crypto gains at 22% from January 2027 nationwide.Annual digital asset gains above 2.5 million won will fall within the planned tax regime.Tax authorities plan detailed standards this year before income becomes taxable on January first 2027.The petitions committee referral does not automatically amend the law or postpone its effective date.  The National Assemblys public petition calls for the scheduled Jan. 1, 2027, start date to be postponed by two years, while finance officials say preparations for the tax remain underway.  South Korea plans to tax annual income from transferring or lending digital assets at a 20% national rate. A 2% local income tax raises the combined burden to 22%. Each resident receives an annual basic deduction of 2.5 million won, currently worth approximately $1,850.  You might also like:  South Korea CBDC plan draws warning over privacy risks  The petition crossing the signature threshold requires the National Assembly to refer it to the relevant standing committee. Referral does not change the

Yesterday 17:29Industry

Pixelmon shuts down game development after inconclusive publisher test

Pixelmon has ended all game development and cut its gaming team after a three-week publisher-led test failed to produce results strong enough to secure a long-term commercial offer.  SummaryPixelmon has ended all game development after a three week test by external publishers produced inconclusive results and failed to secure a long term offer.The publishers asked Pixelmon to polish its games and run another test, but management decided against continuing after more than two years of similar results.Members of the gaming team have received notice, severance and other applicable benefits, with the games set to be taken offline and their systems dismantled.A smaller group of senior and multidisciplinary staff will remain to explore non gaming business models, with further details expected at Thursdays town hall.Pixelmon said refunds are not an option because of its corporate and shareholder structure, and the remaining funds will be used to pursue a viable business model or the company will close.  Pixelmon said in an announcement on its official Discord that external publishers had spent their own marketing budgets on its games over the past three weeks, using their tools to study player acquisition and retention. The publishers did not reject the games outright, but the results were

Yesterday 17:29Industry

UK FCA considers bespoke rules and fund exemptions for tokenized gold: FT

The United Kingdoms Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is reportedly considering whether tokenized gold products should be exempt from some fund rules as part of a broader push to expand tokenization in wholesale markets.  According to a Financial Times report, the FCA is expected to say later on Monday that it is exploring a bespoke regime for tokenized gold, or tokenized commodities, alongside the Bank of England and the HM Treasury.  The FCA is expected to say tokenization could make gold easier to divide and transfer across digital markets, potentially allowing more of Londons bullion reserves to be used as collateral in financial transactions.  The FT said unnamed industry participants warned the FCA that uncertainty over whether tokenized gold products fall under the UKs collective investment scheme or alternative investment fund rules could slow development and limit access for some investors.  The FT said the FCA has made no final decision.  The proposals come as UK regulators push to expand tokenization across wholesale markets. The FT said the Bank of England is also considering whether tokenized assets, including stablecoins, could become eligible collateral under its Sterling Monetary Framework.  London remains the worlds dominant over-the-counter gold market, accounting for about 70% of global notional trading volume, according to

Yesterday 17:09Industry

Bitcoin Suisse to Cut Up to Half Its Swiss Jobs in Overseas Shift

In briefBitcoin Suisse plans to relocate up to half its Zug headquarters jobs abroad—as many as 60 positions, mostly back-office and administrative roles—to Bratislava or Vietnam, with the first layoffs taking effect before years end.CEO Andrej Majcen said the shift reflects a strategic pivot toward serving wealthy clients, family offices and institutions with services beyond crypto, backed by new licenses in Liechtenstein, Bermuda and Abu Dhabi.Majcen said the move is cost-driven, not tied to the crypto downturn, and that Zug will remain headquarters with the name unchanged.  Bitcoin Suisse, one of the pioneers of Switzerlands Crypto Valley, is preparing to relocate up to half of the jobs at its Zug headquarters abroad as it pivots from a Swiss crypto specialist into a global wealth manager.  According to an interview with Finews, the company will move as many as 60 positions overseas, with back-office and administrative roles hit hardest. Those functions are set to shift to Bratislava, Slovakia, or to Vietnam, where the firm plans to build out a new location in the coming years.  Myriad: Bitcoins next move? Click to make your prediction.  Bitcoin Suisse employees were briefed at a town hall Friday morning, and the exact number of cuts will be finalized after

Yesterday 17:01Industry

XRP Ledger records 3,254 transactions in one ledger

The XRP Ledger has processed 3,254 transactions in one ledger, setting a reported single-ledger record on Sept. 14.  Validator operator Vet reported the figure after reviewing the ledger and said most entries were one-drop XRP payments. He described the activity as a possible throughput test, although the senders purpose has not been confirmed.  A drop is one-millionth of one XRP, making it the smallest unit recorded by the network. The high transaction count therefore represented many small transfers, not an unusually large amount of XRP moving between accounts.  The ledger index and initiating account were not identified in Vets public post. Without those details, the record claim relies on his analysis and cannot be compared through the post alone with every earlier ledger in XRPL history.  Tiny XRP payments dominated the record ledger  Most of the 3,254 transactions were simple payments carrying one drop of XRP, according to Vet. Simple native-asset transfers require less processing work than transactions involving decentralized exchange orders, NFTs or cross-currency payment paths.  “I dont know why this person is doing these transactions, but it looks like throughput testing, probably,” Vet said. The description remains speculative because the account owner has not publicly explained the activity.  3254 transactions in a single block a

Yesterday 16:39Industry

Trump concession sends CLARITY Act odds above 32% before make-or-break Senate vote

The CLARITY Act‘s chances of becoming law climbed above 32% as Senate Republicans unveiled their final compromise before Tuesday’s cloture vote.  Related Law CLARITY Act: US Digital Asset Market Structure United States · Passed  Polymarket traders pushed the probability of the landmark crypto market-structure legislation being enacted in 2026 to its highest level since Aug. 2 after Republicans released a 635-page final draft designed to resolve several disputes that have held up the bill.  The move marks a turnaround from weeks of skepticism surrounding the legislation, though prediction-market pricing remains well below levels seen earlier this year. The contract reached about 82% in February before political disputes over ethics, stablecoin rewards and decentralized-finance protections complicated its path through the Senate.  Related Company Polymarket Decentralized prediction market platform  Tuesday provides the next test. Senators are scheduled to vote on cloture on the motion to proceed with H.R. 3633, a procedural step that would require 60 votes and allow the chamber to begin considering the legislation. If cloture is invoked, the final text would then be offered as a substitute amendment.  Republicans said the latest version incorporates 126 substantive changes Democrats requested after more than a year of negotiations. The revisions touch some of the bills most contentious

Yesterday 16:34Industry

Hong Kong man loses HK$13 million in fake crypto investment app scam

A Hong Kong man in his 70s has lost more than HK$13 million ($1.67 million) after a self-described cryptocurrency investment expert contacted him through WhatsApp and directed him to a fake trading app.  Hong Kong police said the case was among more than 40 investment scams recently reported to authorities, with victims losing a combined total exceeding HK$50 million.  The latest case began when the elderly man received an unsolicited WhatsApp message from someone claiming to be a cryptocurrency investment expert from Singapore. The person introduced him to what was presented as a crypto platform offering favorable exchange rates, low fees and withdrawals at any time.  Following the instructions he received, the man opened a cryptocurrency wallet and purchased Tether (USDT) and Ethereum (ETH). He was then told to download an investment application supplied by the scammer and transfer the cryptocurrency to designated wallet addresses as investment capital.  Fake crypto investment app showed profits before withdrawals failed  Once the funds had been transferred, the fraudulent application displayed what appeared to be continuing investment profits, according to police.  Seeing his account balance rise inside the app, the victim became less suspicious and continued sending more cryptocurrency to the wallets provided by the scammer. The fraud only became

Yesterday 16:14Industry
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