Will the Fed Lead Global Central Banks in Raising Rates—and Will Bitcoin Start With a 6 Again?
The Feds sixth rate-setting meeting of the year is now underway! The final rate decision will be announced at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Waller at 2:30 a.m. According to the latest CME FedWatch pricing, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike has surged to 92.3%, making it almost a done deal! Meanwhile, just before the meeting, U.S. President Donald Trump once again called for lower rates, saying: “The United States should have the lowest interest rates in the world.” Waller is now sitting in a position where there is no safe answer: Hike rates, and Trump will explode.Keep rates unchanged, and the market will explode. With a 92.3% probability already priced in, leaving rates unchanged could actually become the “surprise.” This is not only one of the toughest decisions Waller has faced since taking office—it could also become Bitcoins most important pricing moment of 2026 so far. BTC is still moving back and forth between roughly $76,500 and $82,000. The consolidation has lasted nearly a month. And the longer the market stays trapped in a narrow range, the greater the probability of a violent breakout or breakdown. As the old saying goes: “The longer the consolidation, the bigger