Will the Fed Lead Global Central Banks in Raising Rates—and Will Bitcoin Start With a 6 Again?

The Feds sixth rate-setting meeting of the year is now underway!  The final rate decision will be announced at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Waller at 2:30 a.m.  According to the latest CME FedWatch pricing, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike has surged to 92.3%, making it almost a done deal!  Meanwhile, just before the meeting, U.S. President Donald Trump once again called for lower rates, saying: “The United States should have the lowest interest rates in the world.”  Waller is now sitting in a position where there is no safe answer:  Hike rates, and Trump will explode.Keep rates unchanged, and the market will explode.  With a 92.3% probability already priced in, leaving rates unchanged could actually become the “surprise.”  This is not only one of the toughest decisions Waller has faced since taking office—it could also become Bitcoins most important pricing moment of 2026 so far.  BTC is still moving back and forth between roughly $76,500 and $82,000. The consolidation has lasted nearly a month. And the longer the market stays trapped in a narrow range, the greater the probability of a violent breakout or breakdown. As the old saying goes: “The longer the consolidation, the bigger

09-15Deep Dive

Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill set for House committee vote Wednesday

The U.S. House Financial Services Committee has scheduled a markup of legislation that would put the federal Strategic Bitcoin Reserve into law and require government-held Bitcoin to remain in the reserve for at least 20 years.  SummaryThe House Financial Services Committee is set to consider H.R. 8957 on Sept. 16, moving the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill toward a committee vote.The bill would require Treasury to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a separate stockpile for non Bitcoin digital assets held by the federal government.Bitcoin deposited into the reserve would generally have to remain there for at least 20 years, with quarterly proof of reserve reports required from Treasury.Treasury and Commerce would study budget neutral ways to acquire more Bitcoin without new taxes, borrowing or deficit spending.  The House Financial Services Committee has set its markup of various measures for Sept. 16 at 10:00 a.m. ET in the Rayburn House Office Building, putting H.R. 8957, the American Reserve Modernization Act of 2026, in position for committee consideration.  Introduced by Republican Rep. Nick Begich of Alaska in May, the bill has Democratic Rep. Jared Golden of Maine among its cosponsors and would establish two separate structures within the Treasury Department for federal crypto holdings. The

09-15Industry

Binance altcoin inflows hit 31,800 before Fed decision

Binance altcoin inflows have climbed to a seven-day average of roughly 31,800 deposit transactions as crypto markets prepare for the CLARITY Act vote and Wednesdays Federal Reserve decision.  CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost reported the increase in a Sept. 15 market update, saying Binances seven-day average had risen from approximately 8,300 transactions in July. The latest figure is about 3.8 times the July level.  The same data showed increased activity at other centralized exchanges, although Binance recorded the largest count. Coinbase rose from roughly 2,200 altcoin inflow transactions to 4,700, while Bybit reached around 2,700, according to Darkfost.  Binance altcoin inflows approach four times July levels  The data tracks the number of deposits sent to exchange wallets, not their dollar value. CryptoQuants exchange transactions guide defines inflow transaction count as the total number of deposits made to an exchange. CryptoQuant says an increasing count can show rising participation and exchange activity.  A high transaction count does not establish that the deposited tokens were subsequently sold. CryptoQuant states that spot-market inflows have historically been associated with increased potential selling activity because assets entering exchange wallets become available for trading. Transaction counts alone do not identify trade direction, deposit size or whether an individual depositor intends to sell.  Against that

09-15Industry

CLARITY Act gets Democratic counteroffer before vote

Senate Democrats have sent Republicans a CLARITY Act counteroffer hours before the Sept. 15 procedural vote, keeping negotiations open over ethics and other contested provisions.  Politico congressional reporter Jasper Goodman reported late Monday that Democrats had delivered the counterproposal to Republican negotiators, citing three people familiar with the talks. The full Democratic proposal had not been publicly released as of early Tuesday, leaving its precise requested changes unconfirmed.  Before the counteroffer was delivered, Sen. Mark Warner said Democrats who had participated in the negotiations were preparing another proposal. Ethics restrictions involving federal officials remained one of the issues under discussion after Republicans released their latest bill text.  News: Democrats have sent their Clarity Act counterproposal over to GOP negotiators, per 3 people with knowledge of the matter  CLARITY Act counteroffer keeps ethics talks open  The Democratic proposal followed a revised Republican CLARITY Act draft released ahead of Tuesdays floor test. Reuters reported that Republican negotiators said the new text incorporates 126 substantive changes requested by Democrats during months of talks.  The latest version contains revised restrictions on government officials crypto interests, changes affecting stablecoin rewards and protections involving blockchain software developers. Republican negotiators have presented the text as their attempt to resolve enough outstanding disputes to

09-15Industry

Bank of Russia flags crypto and stablecoins as financial market risk

The Bank of Russia has identified cryptocurrency use as a financial market risk, warning that stablecoins and other digital assets could increasingly be used by Russians as substitutes for the national currency.  The central bank outlined the concerns in its review, “Main Directions for the Development of the Financial Market of the Russian Federation for 2027 and the Period of 2028 and 2029,” where it warned about potential losses for investors and risks tied to crypto activity outside national jurisdictions.  Bank of Russia sees stablecoins as a risk to the ruble  The regulator said increased use of digital currencies, particularly stablecoins, could lead households to use privately issued assets in place of the ruble. Investments in cryptocurrencies carry the possibility of a complete loss of invested funds, according to the central bank.  Unlike traditional financial instruments, what the regulator described as “money surrogates” may lack an obligated counterparty or underlying collateral. Investors could therefore have no party against which to make a claim if the value of an asset collapses.  Some cryptocurrencies create another area of concern because transactions can take place through decentralized networks while providing varying degrees of anonymity, the central bank said. It linked those characteristics to increased risks of digital currencies

09-15Industry

Coinbase to Drop Eight Crypto Trading Pairs

Coinbase is removing eight cryptocurrency trading pairs as the exchange continues to consolidate liquidity into its more active markets.  Coinbase Markets announced that trading in ANKR-EUR, BAT-BTC, BAT-ETH, COMP-BTC, FIL-BTC, GRT-BTC, JASMY-USDT and YFI-BTC will be suspended on Sept. 15.  The exchange said the decision followed its regular review of markets and was intended to “improve overall market health and consolidate liquidity.”  Ahead of the suspension, all eight order books have already been switched to limit-only mode on Coinbase Exchange and Coinbase Advanced. Traders can still place and cancel limit orders, while market orders are no longer accepted.  Importantly, Coinbase is not delisting the eight underlying cryptocurrencies.  ANKR, BAT, COMP, FIL, GRT, JASMY and YFI will remain available through their USD order books for Coinbase Advanced Trade users in eligible regions. The change instead removes individual markets denominated in Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether and euros.  BAT is particularly affected by the latest cleanup, with Coinbase dropping both its BAT-BTC and BAT-ETH markets.  Consolidating liquidity  The latest move is part of a broader pattern that has emerged on Coinbase this year.  On Aug. 6, the exchange suspended another six non-USD markets: LSETH-ETH, MINA-EUR, GRT-GBP, MASK-GBP, CHZ-USDT and CRO-USDT.  Coinbase used essentially the same explanation at the time.  The Graph is therefore undergoing its

09-15Industry

Chip Stocks Sink on AI Slowdown Calls, But Analysts Doubt a Crash Is Near

Chip stocks extended a rout on Monday, triggered by an AI slowdown call from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei that sent the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down as much as 5.9%.  Nvidia fell 3.4%, Broadcom slid nearly 5%, and Micron and AMD each dropped more than 4%, dragging the Nasdaq 100 down as much as 1.3% and reviving debate over whether AI-linked valuations face a sharper correction.  AI Slowdown Selloff Reaches Asia  South Koreas SK Hynix slid roughly 7.6% in sympathy with its US peers, tied to the same AI infrastructure buildout, Seoul Economic Daily reported.  Sponsored  Sponsored  Like its US counterparts, SK Hynix also felt the sting of the AI Safety fears. Image Source: Trading View  Amodei‘s essay argued the most advanced AI systems risk slipping beyond human control without deliberate restraint. OpenAI’s Sam Altman and xAIs Elon Musk both endorsed the call.  Is a Crash Actually Coming  Not every analyst reads this as the start of something bigger. Bank of America semiconductor analyst Vivek Arya called the reaction background noise.  “We view these events as noise relative to a secular market where AI-capex could surge 3x to $3tn+ by decade-end.”  Arya noted the chip index still trades near 19 times forward earnings, roughly matching the S&P 500, despite earnings growth running

09-15Industry

CLARITY Act odds fall to 16% as key Democrats resist GOP‘s ’final offer

Odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law this year on Polymarket fell sharply again on Monday after spiking the day before, as key Senate Democrats reportedly said they had not been swayed by Republicans “final” crypto bill proposal.  Polymarket traders initially saw a newly revised Republican proposal with expanded ethics provisions as a positive sign, sending the odds to 35%. However, their confidence was dashed as reservations about the revised text began mounting, with the odds falling back as low as 16% on Monday.  US Senator Mark Warner, one of the Democrats involved in negotiations, reportedly said the revised ethics provision was not “near enough,” while Democrats involved in negotiations began preparing a counterproposal on Monday.  Republicans need 60 votes to advance the bill, and failure on Tuesday could stall legislation that would determine how the US Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission divide oversight of the US crypto market.  Key Democrats remain unconvinced by ethics offer  Punchbowl News Brendan Pedersen reported that Senator Raphael Warnock said Democrats should not advance legislation that fails to address opportunities for corruption that are occurring “in real time.”  Pedersen reported that Senator Ruben Gallego said the latest ethics offer left “much to be desired” and that

09-15Industry

Less Than 10 Billionaires Have Actually Kept Their Promise to Give Away Their Fortune

Key TakeawaysThe Giving Pledge has 256 signers, but fewer than 10 have fully given away their fortunes.John and Laura Arnold are the only living U.S. couple to fulfill the Giving Pledge after 15 years.Greater Good Charities has delivered $1 billion across 121 countries, showing the scale of the challenge.  When Warren Buffett and Bill and Melinda Gates launched the Giving Pledge in 2010, they challenged billionaires to give away at least half their fortunes. A Fortune report published on March 18, 2026, found that fewer than 10 of the 256 signatories have actually followed through on giving away their wealth, and most of those only did so after death. Among US signatories, Fortune reported that only John and Laura Arnold fully complied with the commitment they signed to give away their fortune. The shortfall is part logistics, part accountability, and, as Elon Musk put it, “Its very easy to give money away to get the appearance of goodness. It is very difficult to give money away for the reality of goodness. Very difficult.”  A bold promise, and an awkward scorecard  Silicon Valley loves a public commitment, especially when it comes wrapped in moral purpose. The Giving Pledgebegan in the summer of 2010 as

09-15Industry

Revolut Hackers Publish Client Data and Demand 10,000 Bitcoin Ransom

Attackers who exploited a fake government request to access Revolut customer records have made their first move.  Attackers who tricked Revolut into handing over customer records published the data of high-profile clients over the weekend and demanded a ransom of 10,000 Bitcoin, warning on September 14 that they would leak more each day until the European fintech pays.  Revolut confirmed on September 12 that an unauthorized party had impersonated a government agency, sending fraudulent requests for information from an email on the agencys real domain with valid technical authentication, which staff processed as a routine legal request.  Revolut Blocks Address and Alerts Regulators  As CryptoPotato covered, the data breach included the disclosure of passports, verification selfies, account statements and IBANs, alongside names, dates of birth and home addresses. A Revolut spokesperson said the company “recently identified a sophisticated external impersonation scam where an unauthorized third party utilized a legitimate government agency domain email to submit fraudulent requests for information.”  The group calling itself Revolut Smilik posted client files across several Telegram channels and warned it would “start releasing more and more data every day until Revolut pays for leaking their customers.”  Hackers who attacked Revolut have published the personal data of well-known clients and demanded a

09-15Industry
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