CAD: BoC hawkish tilt with conflict risks – MUFG
Finance CAD: BoC hawkish tilt with conflict risks – MUFG Derek Halpenny at MUFG highlights that the Canadian Dollar (CAD) has held up well versus the US Dollar since the Middle East conflict began, with markets expecting the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep rates unchanged but adopt a more hawkish tone. He sees higher, more persistent inflation risks and a short-term bias favouring the US Dollar (USD), though CAD should outperform other energy-importing G10 currencies in a re-escalation scenario. BoC steady but more inflation focused “In addition to the FOMC, the Bank of Canada meets today and an unchanged monetary stance is widely expected. We also get the release of the Monetary Policy Report and we will likely see a downward revision to GDP growth for this year along with an upward revision to inflation.” “In a de-escalation scenario it seems reasonable to us to assume that a retracement in energy prices will be to levels that are still higher than pre-conflict levels if you assume some amount of additional geopolitical risk premium is likely to remain. That means a higher level of inflation than assumed prior to the conflict that may become difficult to look through.” “However, at todays meeting the backdrop will be