South Korean Won: Strong GDP and inflows support Won – Commerzbank
Commerzbank reports that South Koreas advance Q2 GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 3.7% year-on-year, beating expectations. Robust AI-related semiconductor demand and resilient domestic spending underpin growth. The strong data support prospects of a further 25bp Bank of Korea hike in August. USD/KRW fell to 1,475, with the Won aided by portfolio inflows into bonds and equities. Growth surprise bolsters BoK hike case “The advance Q2 GDP rose 0.6% qoq sa (Bloomberg consensus: 0.4%) vs 1.8% in Q1. This suggests that growth momentum remained resilient despite energy supply disruptions.” “On an annual basis, the economy expanded 3.7% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 3.5%) vs 3.8% previously. The Ministry of Economy and Finance (MoEF) recently upgraded its 2026 growth forecast to 3.0% from 2.0%, reflecting the stronger outlook for exports and investment.” “On monetary policy, the strong Q2 GDP reading supports the case of another 25bp hike to 3.0% by the Bank of Korea (BoK) at the 27 August meeting. At the previous meeting, Governor Shin Hyun-sung described August as a ”live“ meeting, reinforcing the BoKs data-dependent approach.” “With growth remaining resilient, inflation above target, and the AI-driven export boom broadening into wages and domestic demand, policymakers have scope to continue normalising policy.” “In FX, USD-KRW fell 0.2% to 1,475