Rising yields threaten to derail tech and AI stock rally
Theres a tug-of-war happening in financial markets right now. On one side: surging Treasury yields fueled by stubborn inflation data. On the other: an AI stock rally that refuses to quit despite macro headwinds. The US 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to roughly 4.45-4.5%, its highest level since mid-2025, following hotter-than-expected inflation data and a broader global bond market selloff. That kind of move tends to be kryptonite for high-growth tech stocks, whose valuations depend heavily on discounting future earnings. The AI trade is drowning out everything else Here‘s a number that should make you pause: nine of the top ten returning US stocks since the end of 2024 are AI-related. That’s not a diversified rally. Thats a one-theme market wearing different jerseys. Semiconductors, the picks-and-shovels play of the AI boom, sit at the center of the trade. Companies building chips, running data centers, and supplying the infrastructure for large language models have attracted enormous inflows. NVIDIAs upcoming earnings report is being treated as something close to an economic indicator unto itself, with expectations that strong results could provide another leg up for the entire AI complex. The bull case is grounded in real fundamentals. These companies are posting genuine revenue growth. Capital expenditure commitments