Will Gold Price Fall Below $4,000 Amid Renewed Economic Risks?
Gold trades near $4,347 on Friday, resting directly on the neckline of a daily head-and-shoulders pattern. A confirmed break would target $3,950, roughly 9% below the current price. The August consumer price index lands Friday morning in the United States. The technical level and the macro catalyst have arrived in the same session. Macro Pressure Builds Before the CPI Print Thursdays producer price index rose 5.4% year over year against a 5.3% forecast. The inflation surprise pushed gold below $4,400. Treasury yields followed. The 10-year note reached 4.95%, its highest level since October 2023. Markets now price a 67.1% chance of a Federal Reserve hike next week, up from 61.2%. Economists expect headline CPI at 0.4% month over month and 3.4% annually. Fed hike probability Source: CME Group The driver matters. Brent crude trades above $105 after the Iran escalation, up almost 19% in a month. Energy-led inflation lifts nominal yields without producing a dovish Fed. Therefore, gold absorbs the rate pressure while losing its hedge appeal, a dynamic reinforced by a firm dollar. Gold Head and Shoulders Targets $3,950 Gold broke above the descending trendline from its January record on August 5. The rally stalled near $4,750 to $4,800, just under the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at $4,816. Price then retraced









