Bitcoin (BTC) dipped toward its 11-week lows near $73,500 at Tuesdays Wall Street open after US inflation came above expectations.
Key points:
- Bitcoin price action fell as low as $73,518 on the back of higher-than-expected US inflation data before returning above $74,000.
- October CPI inflation came in above expectations at 0.4% month-on-month despite a slowdown in energy price growth to 0.7% from 5.2% in September.
- Analysis saw the Nasdaq putting in long-term lows amid “extreme” sell-side pressure.
Markets price in December rate hike after inflation data
Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD falling to $73,518, nearly matching the low it set on Sunday, its lowest level since Aug. 21.
The October print of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 0.4% month-on-month, above the anticipated 0.3%. CPI, which lacked a year-on-year component due to the absence of data collection during the 2025 US government shutdown, nonetheless showed a cooling rate of growth versus September, when the monthly increase hit 0.6%.
“The index for shelter rose 0.3 percent in October, accounting for over thirty percent of the monthly all items increase. The food index increased 0.5 percent in October, as the food at home index rose 0.4 percent and the food away from home index increased 0.5 percent,” the official release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) stated.
Whereas energy price increases had accounted for a major portion of the September CPI gain, Octobers energy index advanced significantly less at 0.7% versus the previous 5.2% move.
Economist Robin Brooks described the CPI result as “discouraging” while noting that the oil-price spike had contributed to the September numbers.
“All the details of this CPI report are discouraging, but October was also the peak of the second big oil price shock this year and thats obviously going to bleed into core CPI inflation,” he wrote in an analysis.
In a speech earlier on Tuesday, Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller said that he favored hiking interest rates by 25 basis points in December even if inflation cooled from September. Data from CME Group‘s FedWatch Tool showed markets pricing in a 96.3% chance of that outcome at the Fed’s December meeting as a result.
Following the CPI report, those odds turned more hawkish, with a 25-basis-point hike attracting 85.3% odds and a 50-basis-point hike attracting 14.7%.
Fed target-rate probability comparison for December FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group
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Analysis eyes “extreme” Nasdaq sell-off
US stocks came under pressure at the Wall Street open as CPI added to existing headwinds for bulls. These included strong labor-market data and the prospect of tighter AI-sector regulation under a Democratic-controlled House and Senate.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index opened down 0.6% before recouping the losses, while Nvidia stock fell nearly 4% amid a board investigation into whether CEO Jensen Huang was targeted by a foreign intelligence effort.
“Consumer inflation has continued running above target while the October jobs report removed any concerns about a slowdown in the labor market,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company summarized in analysis on the day.
Mosaic nonetheless observed signs of “extreme” sell-side pressure on the Nasdaq, potentially signaling that the index had formed a long-term bottom.
“That includes a spike in the equity put/call ratio which jumped over 1.0 and is even higher than during the trade war selloff in April 2025,” it added.
