Summary
- U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded four days of outflows last week, shedding a net $390 million, their largest weekly withdrawal in six weeks. Solana ETFs bucked the trend with their strongest weekly inflows since May.
- Galaxy Digital's head of research, Alex Thorn, cut his odds on the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 to roughly 10%, down from 75% in May.
- Bitcoin has rising 0.77% since midnight UTC, while Nasdaq 100 index futures have gained 0.5% to their highest level since July 2.
- CoinMarketCaps Fear and Greed index sits at 38/100, a “fear” reading, and the Altcoin Season Index is at 46, showing altcoin strength recovering from the Aug. 7 low of 36.
Bitcoin steadied above $63,000 on Monday, clawing back a fraction of last week's losses with a 0.8% gain since midnight UTC.
Without an obvious catalyst, the largest cryptocurrency appears to be tracking U.S. equities. Nasdaq 100 index futures are up 0.5% to their highest point since July 2.
Any positive reading will need to take into account last weeks net $390 million outflow from spot exchange-traded funds, including the first three-day stretch since the end of July. That was the largest weekly withdrawal from U.S. spot bitcoin products in six weeks.
Ether ETFs flows were limited, and solana (SOL) ETFs bucked the trend with their strongest weekly inflows since mid-May.
The bigger picture is the Clarity Act. Galaxy Researchs head of research, Alex Thorn, cut his odds of the landmark crypto bill becoming law in 2026 to roughly 10% on Aug. 14, joining prediction markets that now put the probability at around 17%. A cloture vote is scheduled for Sept. 15 when the Senate returns from recess, although market observers are expecting another delay.
Derivatives positioning
- Taker ratio stays balanced:the 24-hour long-short volume ratio for takers hangs in balance again, extending Fridays trend. Takers are entities that pull liquidity from the order book by trading at available prices.
- Thin liquidity raises swing risk:BTC's notional open interest, at $48 billion, is now nearly double its 24-hour trading volume. XRP's market shows a similar pattern. That gap means any mass liquidation event could run into thin liquidity, raising the odds of wild price swings.
- BTC OI pulls back, XRP holds firm:in contract terms, BTC's open interest (OI) has pulled back to 750,000 BTC from Friday's 760,000 BTC. That's been a pattern since April, with spikes above 750,000 BTC often proving short-lived. XRP futures show the opposite dynamic, with OI holding steady at 10-month highs. Positioning in ETH and SOL remains relatively light in comparison.
- CC shows bearish buildup:Canton Network's CC token has dropped over 1.5% in 24 hours, making it one of the biggest losers among the top 100 coins by market value. OI in futures tied to the token has risen more than 5% over the same period. That combination points to shorts, or bearish bets, being built up. Negative annualized perpetual funding rates and a negative OI-adjusted 24-hour cumulative volume delta (CVD) both support that read, indicating bears are leading the market.
- ZEC bucks the trend:Privacy-focused ZEC is also an OI gainer. In this case, a positive 24-hour CVD, is a sign bulls are being more aggressive, taking longs via market orders rather than passive limit orders. ZEC's funding rate is also positive at +10%, indicating a growing bias toward bullish bets.
- Volatility and fear stay low:Bitcoin and ether's 30-day implied volatility indexes remain pinned near year-to-date lows, suggesting fear levels and demand for options-based insurance against price swings are both muted. Wall Street's VIX tells a similar story, sitting at its lowest level since January.
- Options positioning leans bullish near-term:On Deribit, the skew for BTC and ETH shows a bid for calls, or bullish bets, at the front end of the curve. The implied volatility term structure shows no signs of short-term stress either, despite Wednesday's scheduled release of the Fed minutes.
- Volume rankings show a split:24-hour volume rankings show a mixed profile, with both BTC calls and puts among the top five most-traded instruments. The same holds for ether.
Token talk
- Pump.fun is one of the standout performers on Monday, adding 7.80% since midnight UTC with daily trading volume rising 55% to $90 million.
- ZEC has gained 4.70% since midnight at $508, extending a notable stretch for privacy coins following XMR's strong run last week.
- MORPHO advanced by 5% at $2.07, reversing some of Friday's weakness and leading the DeFi names higher.
- HYPE rose 3.53% to $59.08, continuing its steady grind and now up around 2% on the week.
- FET is one of the weakest altcoins on Monday, down 1.56% since midnight at $0.1196, giving back some of last week's gains as AI-adjacent tokens lose momentum.
- CoinMarketCaps “Altcoin Season” indicator is at 46/100, recovering from the Aug. 7 low of 36/100 as optimism slowly returns to the altcoin sector. CoinMarketCaps Fear and Greed index sits at 38/100, a “fear” reading.