Three weeks before the midterms, just 34% of US voters approve of Donald Trump, a Financial Times (FT) poll shows.
Traders betting on that vote see Republicans losing the House. Polymarket gives Democrats a 91% chance of taking the chamber, on $16.4 million in volume.
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Jobs, Fuel and an 8-Month War Weigh on the Vote
The FT and Focaldata surveyed 2,275 registered voters online from October 2 to 4. Roughly one-fifth approved of Trumps handling of inflation.
More than two-thirds said the economy was heading in the wrong direction. In addition, only a quarter backed his handling of jobs and the economy.
The poll opened the same day the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported 29,000 new jobs for September. The agency also cut its July and August estimates by a combined 60,000 jobs.
Energy costs form the other pressure point. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.4% in the 12 months to August. Energy costs climbed 16.3% over the same period, with gasoline up 27.4%.
Trump launched the Iran war on February 28, and energy has carried most of its inflation impact since. Diesel prices topped $6 for the first time last month. Trump has weighed curbs on diesel exports to cool prices.
Support for his Iran policy has also slipped, with approval on the conflict down more than 7 points since May.
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Trump Approval Stays Low as Traders Bet on a Blue Congress
The poll found 45% of voters believe Trump is making it harder for Republican candidates to win. Last week, the Cook Political Report shifted 18 House races toward Democrats. It projects a Democratic gain of 9 to 19 seats.
Prediction markets line up with that math. Polymarkets Senate contract gives Democrats a 64% chance, up 19 points since the market opened in July 2025. Democrats overtook Republicans in that market in August.
A separate balance-of-power contract prices a Democratic sweep of both chambers at 62%. A Republican sweep sits at 9%, on total volume of $22.2 million.
Polymarket “Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms” Chart. Source: Polymarket
Still, Republican loyalty has barely moved. Under 70% of Trumps 2024 voters now approve of him, down from 80% in May.
However, 80% still plan to back their districts Republican candidate. Trump has also repeated his $5,000 “Trump Dividend” promise if Republicans win.
The BLS will publish September inflation data on October 14, less than three weeks before Election Day. October figures follow on November 10, leaving the September report as the last CPI reading before the vote.