A pre-release Bitcoin options analysis estimated a 2.5% move for a window containing the November 10 US inflation report. Its comparison of past and expected volatility did not establish whether buying protection was cheap.
Related Asset Bitcoin #1 BTC · $73,238.36 24-hour change: down 2.89% Loading price history… 24H Down 2.89% 7D Down 5.71% 30D Down 12.47%
The analysis reports 3,183 BTC of long liquidations, approximately $245 million, on November 5 and another 2,450 BTC, approximately $181 million, on November 8. These are forced closures of bullish Bitcoin positions, rather than totals for the entire crypto market.
The study puts Bitcoin‘s 30-day realized-volatility reading at 33.7 and Deribit’s DVOL index at 40, leaving a reported gap of 6.3 volatility points. These are the study‘s readings, not live quotes. It does not document the realized measure’s annualization method, limiting how precisely it can be compared with annualized DVOL.
Related Company Deribit Cryptocurrency Futures & Options Trading
The observations concern the period before Octobers Consumer Price Index release was scheduled for November 10 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, or 13:30 UTC. They are not a post-release market update.
What the volatility comparison can tell us
Realized volatility describes swings that have already happened. Deribit defines DVOL as a forward-looking, annualized measure covering the next 30 days. Its calculation draws on option prices at expiries on either side of that horizon and interpolates between them.
The two readings describe different stretches of time. A turbulent week can lift the backward-looking measure and bring it closer to implied volatility without demonstrating that the cash price of protection has fallen.
Two windows behind one volatility gap
The Daily Digits November 10 CryptoQuant study compares measures that look in opposite directions.
Past and future volatility occupy different windowsThirty filled day markers end at an undated comparison divider; thirty outline markers extend forward. Reported realized volatility is 33.7; DVOL is 40.03, annualized. The source-reported gap is 6.33 points and does not establish cheap protection.LOOKING BACKPRICING AHEAD33.740.03Realized reading* · prior 30 daysDVOL · next 30 days · annualized
- COMPARISON POINT
6.33points reported between the readingsPast observation compared with forward pricing.Schematic days, not prices. *Realized annualization method unspecified.
Different windows behind the reported volatility gapA vertical timeline separates the past 30 days from the next 30 days at an undated comparison point. The reported readings are not a live option quote.
PAST 30 DAYS33.7Realized readingAnnualization method unspecified
- COMPARISON POINTNEXT 30 DAYS40.03DVOLAnnualized
- 6.33points reportedbetween readingsPast observation compared with forward pricing.Schematic day markers, not a price series.
The reported gap alone cannot establish whether a particular protective option is cheap.
No exact quote time is supplied. The diagram does not forecast future swings.
Sources and evidence
Sources
- The Daily Digits November 10 analysis on CryptoQuant
- Deribit DVOL methodology
- The Daily Digits November 10 analysis on CryptoQuant reports a 30-day realized-volatility reading of 33.7 alongside DVOL of 40.03, a reported gap of 6.33 volatility points. [1]
- Deribit defines DVOL as a forward-looking, annualized 30-day implied-volatility index, derived from option prices at expiries straddling the 30-day horizon. [2]
- A comparison of trailing realized volatility with forward implied volatility does not establish what the next 30 days will deliver; the reported 6.33-point gap alone cannot establish cheap protection. [1] [2]
Supporting facts
Method
Thirty markers per side represent the reported trailing and forward 30-day horizons, not prices or exact quote endpoints. The source reports 33.7, 40.03 and a 6.33-point difference. Its realized-volatility annualization method is not documented, limiting comparability. No values are recalculated. The divider is undated because the study gives no exact quote timestamp.
Scope
No exact quote time is supplied. The diagram does not forecast future swings.
Infographic by CryptoSlate
DVOL condenses option pricing into a single index reading. It does not give the cash premium for a particular protective option, so it cannot alone tell a Bitcoin holder what buying protection through CPI would cost.
The Daily Digits separately estimates a 2.5% Bitcoin move, approximately $1,884, for a window containing CPI. It reports forward implied volatility of 47.9% for that window versus 38.9% afterward. The study does not disclose the exact expiry endpoints or quote timestamp, so that estimate cannot serve as a current, reproducible protection quote.
That event-window estimate also differs from DVOLs constant 30-day horizon. Combining the two would blur the distinction between pricing around one release and pricing a month of uncertainty.
Neither measure supplies a directional forecast. Deribits explanation allows for large Bitcoin moves upward as well as downward, and an implied move sets no boundary on the eventual outcome.