Bitcoin analysis: BTCs recent rally past $80,000 lacked Coinbase premium
Other onchain metrics, such as CryptoQuants apparent demand, also point to lingering weakness in spot demand. The metric, which measures how much new bitcoin is absorbed by the market relative to mining issuance and changes in dormant supply, has narrowed to -11,000 BTC as of today, from -91,000 BTC in April. In other words, onchain demand has improved from a heavy supply overhang to near balance. However, it is still slightly negative, indicating spot absorption is falling short of meeting supply-side pressures. Futures-led rally The demand growth that materialized was concentrated in perpetual futures positions rather than spot accumulation, according to CryptoQuant. Perpetuals are futures without expiry, allowing traders to hold leveraged bullish and bearish bets, with funding payments to keep contract prices close to the spot price. The leverage magnifies gains but also carries risk. Perpetual futures bids can unwind quickly when funding rates flip or liquidations cascade. Spot accumulation tends to sit on the order book for longer. Hence, rallies driven by futures positioning rather than spot demand tend to be less durable. Coincidentally, BTC has fallen back below $80,000 over the past 24 hours. 2022 again? CryptoQuant said in a weekly note that the current setup is that the rally has the structural signature of