New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ signals extended hiking cycle – TD Securities
Finance New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ signals extended hiking cycle – TD Securities TD Securities reports that the RBNZ kept the OCR at 2.25% in a split decision, with Governor Breman‘s casting vote preserving the hold. However, the Monetary Policy Statement and updated OCR track point to a pre-emptive hiking cycle starting in July, with a series of 25 bps moves projected to take the cash rate to 3.25% by February 2027, broadly matching TD’s own forecast path. Split board but hawkish rate track “The RBNZ left the OCR at 2.25% at todays MPS meeting but signaled a series of rate hikes is likely at upcoming meetings. The decision to hold was a finely balanced with Governor Breman casting the deciding vote to hold. The deciding vote was required given that three RBNZ Board members voted to keep the cash rate on hold at 2.25% while the three external Board members voted to hike 25bps.” “Indeed, the Summary of the record of meeting notes the Committee discussed the ”risks“ of higher term inflation feeding through to medium term inflation, but the Board nonetheless flagged it intends to act preemptively to ensure that ”…higher costs do not lead to elevated inflation over the medium term, while avoiding