Bitcoin [BTC] has rallied by 8.10% since posting Wednesday‘s low of $75,064. The price dip came following the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates by 25 bps.
A rally from those lows suggested that the pullback from $82K earlier in September was due to the market pricing in the rising odds of a rate hike.
Bitcoin unfazed by bearish developments
At the time of writing, the yearly moving average was at $80,701. Bitcoins recovery from its $60K lows in July and the latest resurgence from $76K have helped drive BTC back above the 365-day moving average for the first time since November 2025.
This is a major victory for the bulls, especially given the timing. The CLARITY Act has failed to pass in the Senate, there is an ongoing transition to tightening liquidity conditions due to inflation, and a series of rate hikes is possible in 2027. Thats not all either as the Bank of Japan has also raised interest rates.
In short, BTC has been able to absorb these blows and still push higher. In fact, according to crypto researcher Bull Theory on X, this seemed to be reminiscent of the 2023 market bottom.
Growing long-term holder supply signals market conviction among strong hands
Since February, the long-term holder total supply has steadily trended higher, while the short-term holder (defined as coins with age 155 days or under) total supply has been in decline. It was a record phase of accumulation, wrote crypto analyst Funding Vest on CryptoQuant.
It meant that weak hands were being shaken out of the market, while higher conviction holders continued to accumulate. This could be a bullish signal that could constrict supply further and spark a supply shock if prices continue to climb.
There may be some warning signs to keep an eye on though. According to analyst Joao Wedson, for instance, trading activity is still subdued compared to the previous bull market levels. This may be evidence of weaker retail participation.
Right now, Bitcoin is still in the process of breaking its bearish trend. It might not even have fully transitioned into a bull run. The upcoming rate hikes and a rising U.S Dollar Index could also spell trouble for risk-on markets.
Final Summary
- Bitcoin has surpassed the yearly moving average for the first time since November 2025.
- Resilience in the face of a series of bearish news is evidence of bullish underlying conditions.