The demand for this bullish exposure suggests some investors expect the ongoing choppy price action in BTC to end with a decisive move toward $70,000. Perhaps, they expect the CPI to come in softer-than-expected, lifting risk assets higher.
Economists currently expect the July report to show headline CPI rising 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, is forecast to rise 0.2% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year, according to consensus estimates from Reuters, Dow Jones, and Bloomberg surveys.
Other traders are less focused on direction and more interested in a jump in volatility.
“We reiterate our recommendation to accumulate December optionality, leveraging depressed implied volatility across the curve ahead of several key catalysts, notably updates on bipartisan Clarity Act negotiations, shifts in Middle East geopolitical risks, and potential monetary policy pivots,” quant-driven trading firm TDX Strategies said.
“Structurally, we favour December strangles on BTC and SOL,” the firm added.
A strangle involves buying both a call and a put with the same expiration. The position profits if the price makes a large move in either direction. The maximum loss is limited to the combined premium paid and occurs only if the market stays relatively flat.
Volatility could expand quickly once bitcoin breaks out of its recent range, according to Jeff Anderson, managing partner at market-making firm STS Digital.
