Crypto enters a week of 2 central bank decisions with lighter trading and a shrinking stablecoin supply. The Federal Reserve decides on October 28, and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) follows on October 30.
Markets expect both banks to hold rates steady. However, traders also price December hikes at both. That puts the focus on guidance from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda.
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Stablecoin Supply Slides as On-Chain Trading Cools
Lookonchains weekly report for October 19 to 25 shows total stablecoin market cap fell $2.19 billion.
On Ethereum (ETH), combined Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) balances fell $1.17 billion over 7 days. Tron (TRX) lost $495 million, the second-largest outflow among the top 15 chains. Arc posted the largest gain at $294 million.
USDT and USDC 7-Day Change Across The Top 15 Chains. Source: X/Lookonchain
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Trading on decentralized exchanges (DEXs) slowed in the same week. Spot volume dropped 12.21% from the prior week to $44.09 billion. Perpetual futures volume fell 8.59% to $142.54 billion.
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Hyperliquid, the top perp DEX in Lookonchains ranking, saw volume slide 8.50% to $51.68 billion. Its weekly revenue fell 10.17%, and USDT and USDC balances on the chain dropped $184 million.
Public companies kept adding crypto while on-chain activity cooled. Strive bought 6,182 Bitcoin (BTC), lifting its holdings to 43,000 BTC. BitMine added 10,452 ETH worth $24.13 million.
December Hike Bets Shift the Spotlight to Warsh and Ueda
CME Groups FedWatch tool shows an 89.5% chance the Fed, which decides first, holds at 3.75% to 4%. The same tool puts the odds of a December 9 hike at 82.3%.
December bets have wavered, with the odds of no change rising from 7.3% a month ago to 17.7% now. Warshs press conference on Wednesday will show whether the Fed stands behind that December path.
Two days later, the BoJ faces a similar setup, with a hold at 1.25% expected after Septembers hike. More than 80% of economists in a Bloomberg survey see its next move in December.
Daiwa Securities says a formal call that underlying inflation hit 2% could open the door to a December hike. Traders will also look for December hints in Uedas wording.
Bitcoin heads into both meetings below $80,000, down 0.27% over the past day. September offers a precedent.
When the Fed hiked that month, Bitcoin rose from about $75,350 to above $76,100 within minutes. If that pattern holds, a priced-in hold may pass quietly, while a firm December signal could weigh on prices.
Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto Markets
Stablecoin supply will show whether crypto buyers return after Warsh speaks on Wednesday and Ueda on Friday. A hawkish tone from both would test a market already trading on lighter volumes and a smaller stablecoin base.
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