Germany: Industrial slump deepens with Middle East shock – ING
ING‘s Carsten Brzeski highlights that German industrial production weakened further in March, with a 0.7% monthly decline leaving first-quarter output more than 1% below late 2025 levels. He notes that the war in the Middle East, soaring energy prices and a sharply narrower trade surplus increase the risk of a downward revision to Germany’s first-quarter GDP growth. Industrial data signal renewed growth risks “German industrial production weakened further in March as the war in the Middle East started to take its toll. The just-released industrial data for March illustrate the struggle of German industry to gain momentum in the first quarter of the year. Not only was the February drop revised downwards, with a 0.7% month-on-month decline in March, but industrial production in the full first quarter was more than 1% weaker than in the final quarter of 2025.” “The March drop was mainly driven by falling production in manufacturing. On a more positive note, activity in the construction sector rebounded somewhat in March. At the same time, export growth slowed to 0.5% MoM, from 4.7% in February.” “As industrial production is down on the quarter and the trade surplus narrowed significantly in March, a downward revision to the first estimate of first-quarter GDP