CLARITY Act odds fall to 34% as Senate delays vote
Prediction markets are lowering the chances of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 as the Senate turns to Russia sanctions and federal nominations before its August recess. CLARITY Act loses its place on the Senate schedule Senate Majority Leader John Thune has not scheduled immediate action on the CLARITY Act, narrowing the path for the crypto market structure bill before lawmakers leave Washington. The Senate is instead moving forward with federal nominations and legislation imposing sanctions on Russia and Iran. Preliminary action on the crypto bill remains possible during the week of Aug. 3, but the chamber is scheduled to begin its summer recess after Aug. 7. According to Galaxy Digital head of research Alex Thorn, the timetable has become the main threat to passage. “The calendar is no longer merely an obstacle. It is now the enemy.” Thorn estimated that lawmakers needed to begin the floor process by July 30 to leave enough time for procedural votes and debate. The Senates decision to prioritize other legislation makes that timeline increasingly difficult. A vote after the recess is still possible. However, senators would return closer to the November midterm elections, when campaigning could displace complicated legislation requiring bipartisan negotiations. Senate vote math leaves little room for defections Most