European Central Bank: June hike seen as insurance move – ING
ING economists Carsten Brzeski and Bert Colijn expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to deliver a single ‘insurance’ rate hike in June, largely because markets have already tightened financial conditions and inflation pressures are creeping higher. They argue that muted fiscal support and a non-overheating Eurozone economy reduce the need for multiple hikes, while policymakers remain wary of repeating 2011s policy mistake. Single hike as policy insurance signal “With this vigilance, the main question for the ECB will be whether to go for a preemptive insurance hike or stay put. Market expectations have already tightened the monetary policy stance in recent weeks. Real long-term interest rates, for example, are at levels last seen in the period between 2013 and 2016. It is these market expectations that are likely to shift the needle towards a rate hike. We have been there before – an ECB stressing that not delivering on market expectations would actually ease the monetary policy stance.” “A tighter monetary policy stance and creeping inflationary pressure are why we think that a rate hike is almost a done deal. Isabel Schnabels comments earlier this week confirmed the direction of travel. In fact, it would probably require another sharp deterioration in economic sentiment