کرپٹو گائیڈز، معلومات اور تجزیے

Fed Rate Hike Odds Fall to 50/50: Will Bitcoin's Rally Above 80,000 Hold？

Odds of a September Federal Reserve rate hike fell back to a coin-flip on Friday, a sharp reversal after the probability touched 70% just a day earlier and sat as low as 37% a week before that. 　　The swing tracks a rally that has pushed Bitcoin (BTC) toward $82,000.　　Rate Bets Whipsaw Ahead of the September Meeting　　The CME Group (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) FedWatch tool now shows the September 16 meeting split almost evenly between holding the benchmark rate at 3.50-3.75% and lifting it a quarter point to 3.75-4.00%.　　Odds of a rate hike in September dropped today, returning to a 50/50 split. The second expected rate hike is now not fully priced in until March rather than December.　　This represents a notable shift away from the strong hawkishness expressed by the markets earlier this week. pic.twitter.com/VVuLawauDt　　— Satoshi Stacker (@StackerSatoshi) September 3, 2026　　The tool had assigned the hike a 70% probability as recently as Thursday.　　The FedWatch data also pushed back the timeline for a second hike. A move to the 4.00-4.25% range isnt priced as the most likely outcome until the March 2027 meeting. Rather than December 2026 as futures had implied earlier in the week.　　Iran and Oil Are Driving the Volatility　　The odds have

09-04انڈسٹری

SoFi lists SoFiUSD on Kraken as the two firms open round-the-clock dollar settlement

Kraken‘s owner Payward will connect to SoFi’s real-time settlement rails and carry SoFis bank-issued stablecoin on its exchange.　　The partnership, announced Thursday, lets institutional clients on either platform move dollars at any hour.　　Payward joins SoFis 24/7 rail　　Payward, the infrastructure company behind the Kraken exchange, is joining the SoFi Exchange Network, the always-on settlement rail launched in April.　　SoFi is using Paywards prime brokerage, Kraken Prime, to route crypto trades from its app to access deep liquidity.　　Kraken will list SoFiUSD, a stablecoin redeemable one-to-one for U.S. dollars, and make it available to the platforms retail, professional, and institutional users. SoFi and Payward issued a joint statement on September 3.　　The deal lets institutional traders use a settlement service that was only available to SoFis business banking clients before.　　Kraken customers have the option to settle and hold dollars on both networks at any time.　　SoFis crypto revenue reached $134.3 million in Q2　　Legacy bank rails go dark on nights and weekends, but crypto continues to trade.　　“The financial system should not shut down when markets stay open,” SoFi CEO Anthony Noto said in the announcement.　　Payward Co-CEO David Ripley said, “Money and markets are converging into a new financial paradigm.”　　Kraken Prime is powering the buy and sell buttons in

09-04انڈسٹری

Scan reveals 96,000 fake-address outputs clogging Bitcoins unspent database

Blockchain data company Bitquery published a census on Sept. 2 of four ways text appears in Bitcoin, scanning 965,135 blocks and revealing that the same words can impose very different costs on nodes.　　Related Asset Bitcoin #1 BTC · $81,300.78 24-hour change: up 5.47% 24H Up 5.47% 7D Up 1.13% 30D Up 27.11%　　Its study counted 13,062 OP_RETURN taunt transactions that added no spendable state, against 96,231 fake-address text outputs that remain in the unspent transaction output set.　　The March 21-26, 2026, campaign named Bitcoin Core developer Luke Dashjr in the same two-sentence taunt. Bitquery counted 13,062 transactions from 13,062 sending addresses across 579 blocks, with 0.1014 BTC paid in aggregate fees. The chain records the text, timing, inputs, and fees, but it does not identify the payer, author, or motive.　　Across the broader scan, Bitquery classified 4,412,782 OP_RETURN outputs as readable text. Their node cost differs from fake-address text because Bitcoin treats the two output types differently after confirmation.　　Related Person Luke Dashjr CTO · Ocean Mining　　Nodes do not need to retain an OP_RETURN output in the UTXO database used to check whether coins can be spent, although its data remains in Bitcoins block history. The Bitcoin developer guide describes this null-data construction as

09-04انڈسٹری

500 Million XRP Leave Binance as Reserves Hit Early 2024 Low

Binances monthly average XRP reserves have fallen by about 500 million tokens since November 2025, according to Cryptoquant. The decline may reflect accumulation and ETF demand, although exchange transfers could also affect the metric.　　Key TakeawaysBinances monthly XRP reserves declined from 3.1 billion to 2.6 billion.The reserve average has returned to a level last seen in February 2024.Self-custody and ETF demand are possible, but unconfirmed, drivers.　　Binance XRP Reserves Fall to 2.6 Billion　　Binances monthly average XRP reserves have declined from about 3.1 billion in November 2025 to 2.6 billion, according to a Cryptoquant assessment by contributor Darkfost, shared on X on Sept. 1. The latest average matches a level last recorded around February 2024. The 500 million figure represents the net change across the period, not one identified withdrawal.　　The contraction continued while XRP completed August with a gain of nearly 30%, according to the analysis, which placed the token near $1.35 on Sept. 1, about 63% below its cited high of $3.66. The accompanying chart shows Binance‘s 30-day reserve average declining broadly alongside XRP’s retreat from its 2025 price peak. As of writing, the token has moved higher, trading at $1.45 after gaining 8% over 24 hours.　　Cryptoquant summarized the finding in a

09-04انڈسٹری

Bitcoin Surges Above Key Moving Average, Key Resistance About to Crack

The 50-week ceilingDerivatives markets are adding fuel　　Bitcoin has pushed decisively back above its closely watched 50-week moving average.　　The bulls could be on the verge of a potential test of the $82,000-$83,000 resistance zone.　　BTC climbed as high as $81,797 on the daily chart before pulling back slightly, with the latest price around $81,400.　　Bitcoin Surges Above Key Moving Average, Key Resistance About to Crack　　XRP Is Most Asked-About Crypto in Wealth Manager Meetings, Bitwise Claims　　This is a daily gain of more than 5% over 24 hours.　　Galaxy Research has stated that “all eyes” are currently on the 50-week moving average.　　That level has become particularly important because Bitcoin spent much of the past year below it.　　The 50-week ceiling　　Bitcoin peaked above $124,000 in late 2025 before its unfortunate decline. The subsequent downtrend produced a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. During that decline, the 50-week simple moving average became a major resistance level.　　Galaxy Research currently puts it around $81,041.　　In fact, Bitcoin already attempted this breakout in late August. It briefly reached $81,265 on Aug. 25 but was rejected around the 50-week average, which was then approximately $81,085.　　You Might Also Like　　However, the move appears to be much stronger now. BTC has produced a powerful daily candle

09-04انڈسٹری

Decoding Bitcoins September trap: Is drop to $52K looming for BTC？

Are Bitcoin investors falling for the markets “September Trap”？　　In terms of positioning, traders are becoming more long biased on Bitcoin, implying they expect a bullish move that the technical formation has yet to confirm.　　Because from the technical standpoint, BTC has been trading below $80k for more than two weeks, which keeps the risk/reward equation in check.　　However, the setup on the chart below implies that the bulls are willing to risk a lot for a big reward.　　According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoins funding rates are positive, and the long/short ratio has jumped to 1.08 from below 1 over the past week. Moreover, it is the highest ratio of long positions since the mid-August cycle.　　Source: CoinGlass　　In essence, the traders are expecting a breakout above Bitcoins current resistance.　　However, it must be noted that not everyone is optimistic.　　An analyst on X posted asking for a BTC short, claiming that BTC could reach the $52k level and then turn around and head back up. This divergence in viewpoints can only contribute to BTC prices volatility and put more pressure on its current consolidation.　　In this context, it becomes critical to take a closer look at the on-chain situation. And so far, its suggested that there is even

09-04انڈسٹری

ARB Price Soars More Than 50% as Arbitrum DAO Income Hits $6.19M

TLDR:ARB price gained more than 50% in seven days and roughly 23% in 24 hours, while daily trading volume climbed above $500 million.ArbitrumDAO reported $6.19 million in first-half income from four revenue lines carrying a combined gross margin above 97%.Robinhood Chain generated $360,000 in July licensing fees, representing about 35% of ArbitrumDAOs income for that month.Arbitrums tokenized real-world asset market reached $1 billion, while first-half network transactions totaled 478 million.　　ARB price traded near $0.136 on September 3 after gaining more than 50% over seven days. The token rose roughly 23% within 24 hours, placing Arbitrum among the weeks strongest performers.　　The rally followed the Arbitrum Foundations first-half progress update. ArbitrumDAO recorded $6.19 million in income during the first six months of 2026. Separate July figures showed Robinhood Chain adding a new licensing stream after its mainnet launch.　　Trading activity accelerated sharply with the move. Daily volume topped $500 million, around nine times the previous weeks daily average. Futures open interest climbed 35%, showing increased leveraged exposure alongside spot demand.　　Arbitrum ARB PriceARB Price Gains Support From Expanding DAO Revenue　　The first-half update gives investors a clearer view of ArbitrumDAOs finances. Its $6.19 million income came from four revenue lines carrying a combined gross margin

09-04انڈسٹری

Bitcoin Price Targets $82,814 After 50-Week Average Breakout

TLDR:Bitcoin price trades above the 50-week moving average near $81,041, placing the weekly close at the center of the technical outlook.A weekly close above $82,814 would create the first higher high of the decline and challenge the established bearish market structure.Bitcoin futures volume reached roughly $84.74 billion, while open interest climbed to about $57.86 billion during the price advance.BTC liquidations totaled approximately $229.56 million, including $214.81 million in shorts and only $14.74 million in longs.　　Bitcoin price trades above its closely watched 50-week moving average after a strong daily advance. BTC reached $81,797 before easing toward $81,400, leaving traders focused on the weekly close. The move places the $82,000 to $83,000 resistance zone within immediate reach. Scott Melker identifies $82,814 as the decisive level for the weekly structure.　　A close above that price would create Bitcoins first higher high since the decline began. It would also confirm strength above the long-term average. Bitcoin price therefore sits near a technical threshold that could challenge the sequence of lower highs and lower lows. That close now matters.　　bitcoin:native is back above the 50W MA.　　Will a weekly close above it happen this week？　　Bitcoin Price Firmly Retakes the 50-Week Moving Average　　Market analyst Ted Pillows has highlighted

09-04انڈسٹری

OpenAI ships Astra, hands Daybreak cyber testers first access

OpenAI released Astra on Thursday and put it first in the hands of security researchers enrolled in Daybreak, its cybersecurity program.　　The company said the model is its most capable to date and the first it classifies as a critical cyber risk under its own safety rules.　　Astra scores 100% on ExploitBench　　Astra is currently available to Daybreak customers. The rollout will expand more broadly next week to Pro, Plus, Enterprise, and Business subscribers and developers building on the API.　　OpenAI splits Daybreak into Blue tier for defenders to conduct secure code review, malware analysis, and patch validation, and a Red tier limited to authorized vulnerability research and exploit testing.　　Discover more　　Exchange Traded Funds　　Digital Currencies　　Finance　　Astras most advanced security features are being routed through Daybreak Blue to furnish additional defensive access.　　The company said Astra now reaches the “Critical” level in OpenAIs Preparedness Framework for cybersecurity. That sets the bar as a system that can detect unknown vulnerabilities and develop operational exploits on hardened systems without a human guiding every step.　　No previous model from OpenAI has been named at that level. The benchmarks OpenAI provided are steep. Astra achieved a perfect 100% on the public test ExploitBench.　　In an internal test to rule out training contamination, built from

09-04انڈسٹری

New Zealand's Kiwi gets most of Wednesday back without earning it

The New Zealand Dollar trades just under 0.5900 into the New York afternoon, up roughly half a percent, after a session that retraced most of Wednesday‘s decision-day slide without a single New Zealand input. NZD/USD climbed from an Asian low that held above Wednesday’s 0.5800 trough to a high a handful of pips short of 0.5900, reclaiming both the 200-day and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the way, the two of which sit within twenty pips of each other near 0.5850. The recovery has the same author as every other majors rally on Thursday, which is a Dollar being sold from London onward.　　The Dollar gave back what Wellington took　　A Fed governor‘s lean toward a September hold cut hike odds to around 50% from above 60%, the Yen’s surge to a one-month high pulled Treasury yields lower before he spoke, and the Dollar Index slipped beneath 99.00 to its weakest since late August. The Kiwi rode that from midnight GMT to 16:00 GMT in something close to a straight line. Nothing about the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) changed in the interval: the Official Cash Rate (OCR) is 2.75% after Wednesday‘s quarter point, the next decision is October

09-04انڈسٹری

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