The US and Israel have drafted plans for Iran strikes after the Nov. 3 midterms, The New York Times reports. Energy sites appear on the reported target list, with Brent crude already near $109 a barrel, Investing.com data show.
US President Donald Trump, however, halted an attack shortly before launch this month and has shelved earlier plans. Some officials say oil facilities may be spared, since Trump wants to keep pump prices from rising.
Will Brent Repeat Its February Jump？
Brent rose 27.9% in the week after the US and Israel launched the Iran war on Feb. 28. Today, data puts Brent nearly 50% above its pre-war close.
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In contrast, Brent settled 5.2% higher on July 8, when US strikes resumed after a truce. However, oil‘s Oct. 8 jump largely survived Trump’s pledge not to strike before the vote, NBC News reported.
Oil and bond yields have also moved together. Their correlation hit its highest level since the 1990s.
Can Washington Keep Oil Out of the Crossfire？
Plans for Iran‘s nuclear program could include an attack on Pickaxe Mountain, a nuclear site buried in granite. Tehran analyst Peiman Salehi told the Times that Iran’s response would include Saudi refineries. He called oil prices Tehrans best lever against Trump.
Mahdi Mohammadi, a senior adviser to Irans negotiator, called a 72-hour US campaign a fantasy.
The full US buildup, including three aircraft carriers, will not finish until early November, the Times reports. Meanwhile, Israel votes on Oct. 27. If Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu loses, he becomes a caretaker, which experts say limits his power to launch a war.
US officials told the Wall Street Journal in September that Trump expects to resume bombing after the vote. Nate Silvers model gives Democrats a 94% chance of taking the House. Trump, however, calls many polls rigged.
Gulf exports topped pre-war levels in the week to Oct. 18. Brent nonetheless trades near $109, a level new strikes could test.