Venice Token [VVV] slid to a low of $25.90 on the 29th of September, marking a 25% drop from its record peak of $34.60. Although the altcoin flashed a reversal sign (an incomplete hammer candlestick), an extra price decline and discount couldnt be overruled.
Should VVV crypto bulls wait a little longer？
Following Bitcoins [BTC] cue and subsequent drop from $87K to $82K, the VVV crypto also faced a similar sell-off. The VVV crypto tripled in Q3, rising from $10 to $35, a whopping +230% gain between July lows and September peak.
Although the brief Bitcoin pullback triggered VVV holders to book profit, the selling may be far from over. First, the broader market may remain range-bound ahead of the Fed rate decision in late October. If so, altcoins that have exploded in Q3, including VVV, may see more profit-taking.
Source: VVV/USDT, TradingView
On this macro backdrop, the recent 20% drop seems incomplete. The pullback has not touched the typical golden zone and reversal level at the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci level ($20-$22). In other words, an extended decline could still be possible towards this support level.
The level was also a confluence of the 200-day Moving Average (MA) and the Fibonacci golden zone, further reinforcing it as a crucial support zone.
If so, an extended pullback to 35% could increase the odds of a strong reversal if the 200-day MA/golden zone area holds. That would offer another long opportunity targeting the recent peak at $32-$35. Such a setup would be a 53% upside potential.
In contrast, a break below the 200-day MA would invalidate the bullish thesis.
Will VVV crypto burns boost recovery？
That said, the Q3 explosive rally was also marked by a whopping 3x burn rate in September alone.
Notably, the volume of VVV burned jumped from $11K to nearly $30K. Overall, $666K has been spent to buy and burn VVV tokens. Despite a 3x run rate in September, this was still 4% below the pace seen in August ($691K).
Source: Venice
In other words, the aggressive pace of burn rate and overall deflationary narrative also fueled VVVs explosive Q3 rally.
In conclusion, if the macro pressure eases and Bitcoin defends $84K, a rebound could be likely in October. If so, VVV could defend $20 and re-target $35 or higher. But if macro pressure deepens and BTC loses $84K and $80K support, then the VVV token could be dragged lower.
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Final Summary
- VVV crypto is down 25% as Bitcoins cool-off triggers profit-taking
- The AI token tripled in Q3 but faced a tough October amid broader macro pressure