Bitcoin has rallied 45% to $87K from Julys low of $57.8K. Despite briefly slipping back to $84K this week, Fidelity believes there was a higher chance of hitting $100K.
Notably, the asset manager accurately called the $60K bottom and the end of Bitcoin winter. Now, Fidelitys Head of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer is back with an even bolder projection: BTC can hit as high as $300K this cycle. But first, this overhead obstacle must be cleared.
Bitcoins path to $100K-$300K
According to Timmer, BTC was close to forming a double bottom pattern (the W-formation) on the weekly charts. Timmer said that if the pattern is completed (by BTC closing above $82K), the path to $100K would be clear.
Bitcoin is looking particularly interesting here as it challenges key resistance at $80k. If it breaks it will confirm a double bottom targeting $100k.
Source: Fidelity
The double bottom patterns are bullish reversal formations, and their breakout rallies tend to coincide with the depth of the W-trough. In this case, it would translate to 24% upside potential above $82K, translating to the $102K price target.
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So, Fidelitys mid-term $100K outlook was spot on, purely based on price technical analysis.
Interestingly, the $82K was a crucial on-chain level. It doubled as the average cost basis of U.S. Spot BTC ETFs.
For their part, Bitfinex analysts expected the level to be defended, noting that,
The same line capped the May rally before price fell to $58.5k. Now those buyers are in profit, and a cohort in profit defends its cost, turning the ceiling into support.
Source: Glassnode/Bitfinex
A weekly candlestick close above $82k could confirm the double bottom pattern and if the average BTC ETF cost basis will be the next support zone for the next leg of the rally.
Otherwise, losing the support would open up a possible downside scenario to $70K.
Separately, Timmer projected the bullish target for Bitcoin in this bull run would be $300K, citing the Bitcoin Power Law model. This was a slightly conservative scenario compared to the aggressive bullish target of +$400K projected by the CryptoQuant CEO.
Source: Fidelity
Still, the asset has to navigate short-term macro pressure, including a potential 0.25% Fed rate hike in October.
Amid this likely macro-driven pressure on risk appetite, there was a possibility of a low sell-off from BTC miners, according to Bitfinex analysts.
Mining difficulty is still below late-June levels, so competition to mine it stays low. Miners now earn around 25% more per unit of computing power, which means less need to sell BTC to pay bills, easing sell pressure.
Source: Bitfinex
Overall, Bitcoin bulls will need to defend the $82K despite macro headwinds to make the $100K target a reality.
Final Summary
- Fidelity said clearing the $82K obstacle would make $100K the next BTC bullish target
- Bitfinex expected a low miner dump, citing current 25% extra profits per compute unit