The $120 million Coldcard hack lights up Bitcoin's memory pool
Extracto:Bitcoin remains range-bound near $62,000–$65,000 despite rising network activity, with analysts citing the Clarity Act as the immediate policy catalyst. Senate timing is tight before the August 10 recess, and year-end passage odds have fallen to 23% from roughly 75% in mid-May, with added risk from potential prediction-market restrictions. On the macro side, Bitfinex warns that the bullish case could collapse if the U.S. 10-year Treasury real yield surpasses 2.5%, a level never sustained before Bitcoin existed. The current real yield stands at 2.41%, just nine basis points below that threshold, making it a key level to monitor.
Increasing network activity is often said to support valuations for the networks native coin, bitcoin . So far, the token has neither rallied nor dropped significantly and remains boxed in the recent range of $62,000–$65,000.
Analysts continue to point to the fate of the Clarity Act as the immediate catalyst while citing longer-duration government bond yields as a more macro and longer-lasting one.
“CLARITY is still the immediate policy binary. The Senate has a three-day window before its August 10 recess, while the implied probability of passage by year end has fallen to 23% from around 75% in mid-May. A push to attach prediction-market restrictions adds another process risk,” analysts at Marex said.
Meanwhile, Bitfinex said the bullish macro case for bitcoin could collapse if the real or inflation-adjusted yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note tops 2.5%.
“The 10-year real yield has not stayed above 2.5% since before Bitcoin existed, so there is no price history above that line. It is now at 2.41%, nine basis points below,” the exchange said.
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