“I don't think the 500-day rule will be as relevant in the current cycle. BTC is now primarily institutionally driven. ETF inflows have dwarfed the halving supply shock.”
Following the April 2024 halving, bitcoin miners produced about 450 BTC per day, worth about $35 million to $40 million, Fernandes said. By comparison, the daily spot bitcoin ETF flows in 2024 and 2025 ranged from about $100 million to $1 billion, he added.
The contrast suggests ETF flows now outweigh the new supply created by miners, blunting the halvings direct impact. Additionally, those flows can also reverse, adding selling pressure on the price of bitcoin, as seen recently, making these ETF moves a dominant force in price moves.
Aryan Sheikhalian, investor and head of research at CMT Digital, agreed with Greenspan and Fernandes, saying the mechanism and fundamentals that have historically driven the bitcoin halving cycle are fading.
“New supply from miners is de minimis next to spot bitcoin ETFs and corporate U.S. Treasury flows, and those flows set both the top and this year's unwind,” Sheikhalian said.
There are, however, still some believers in this four-year cycle of halving, and its historical impact and miner economics remain fundamental mechanics of the bitcoin market.