Is XRP heading for a market cap nearly 2x higher than ETHs current one？
Ripples native token is among the most popular cryptocurrencies, often being the object of massive price predictions. Impressive rallies like the one that took place in the past 10 days or so only fuel such forecasts.
Popular analyst EGRAG CRYPTO approached the question from a different direction. Instead of starting with an XRP price target directly, he calculated what the asset could actually be worth if its market cap eventually tapped $500 billion.
The Math
Before we get into the analyst‘s math, let’s look at the final answer: $7 per XRP. Thats if we assume that Ripple continues distributing tokens from escrow at its recent pace. The current number of tokens in circulation stands at 62.74 billion, according to data from CoinMarketCap. With that supply unchanged, a $500 billion market cap would translate into a price of almost $8 per XRP.
However, the assets supply does not remain still. Nor does it shrink over time. EGRAG estimated that Ripple has been distributing a net average of approximately 268 million tokens per month. If that pace continues through 2029, about 9.1 billion additional XRP would enter circulation, increasing the total to 71.9 billion.
Once we divide $500 billion by that projected supply, the final result drops to $6.96 per token. However, the analyst said that depending on how quickly escrowed XRP enters circulation, the potential price target could range from $6.85 to $7.20.
It‘s worth noting that even if Ripple unlocks a billion XRP from escrow, it does not necessarily mean that the same amount of tokens will immediately enter the circulating market. A considerable portion can be returned to escrow or remain under the company’s control.
Is $500B in Reach？
The current price tag of $1.42 means that XRP has a market capitalization of approximately $89 billion. Reaching the aforementioned massive target would require its valuation to increase by more than 460%.
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On the plus side, the latest price action, in which the token surged from $1.00 to $1.70 within days before it was halted, showed that investor appetite can return very quickly. Some of the catalysts behind this surge came from whales accumulating and withdrawing funds from large exchanges such as Binance.
On the downside, though, it gets more and more difficult to stage mind-blowing price pumps, as XRP did in late 2024 and early 2025, once its valuation grows. It simply requires more capital. Nevertheless, the cross-border altcoin continues to be favored by some big analysts, who are adamant that its still capable of such massive rallies.