OCBC strategist Christopher Wong notes that the Korean Won remains under pressure as foreign selling of Korean equities persists and elevated US yields after the FOMC continue to weigh. Large-cap technology stocks are at the centre of outflows, though the broader KOSPI has held up. Wong highlights that easing US yields, a softer Dollar and lower Oil may cap near-term USD/KRW upside, but a sustained KRW recovery likely needs foreign equity selling to slow.
Flow pressure weighs as USDKRW tests resistance
“KRW weakened further as persistent foreign selling of Korean equities remained the main drag, while still-elevated US yields post-FOMC continued to weigh despite easing overnight.”
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“Foreign investors sold another KRW2.3tn of KOSPI shares on Thursday, taking cumulative selling to around KRW14tn over the past seven sessions. Large-cap technology names remain at the centre of the outflows, even as the broader KOSPI has held up relatively well.”
“Nevertheless, the external backdrop has turned somewhat less negative overnight, with UST yields and the USD easing from their post-FOMC highs, while lower oil prices should also offer some relief.”
“This may temper further upside in USD/KRW near term, but a more sustained recovery in KRW probably requires foreign equity selling to slow.”
“Bullish momentum on daily chart intact, though RSI shows signs of moderation after the recent rise. Support at 1373, 1365 levels (21 DMA). Resistance at 1387 (23.6% fibo retracement of the sharp decline from Jul to Sep), 1410 levels (38.2% fibo, 50 DMA).”