Key Takeaways
- Willy Woo sees parallels between the current market and 2015.
- Another analyst says his data shows no such decoupling.
- Different calculation periods can produce sharply different readings.
Bitcoin-Stock Split Revives the 2015 Comparison
Bitcoin market analyst Willy Woo argued Sept. 6 that BTCs relationship with stocks had reached its widest divergence in nearly a decade, potentially resembling an early stage of the cycle that culminated in the 2017 bull market. Woo shared a long-term bitcoin-to-S&P 500 chart on X and wrote:
“Its almost been a decade since the last time this happened… The last time BTC decoupled from stocks to this degree was 2015 (prelude to the 2017 bull market).”
Woo expanded the comparison by describing 2014 as a period when stocks remained bullish while bitcoin experienced an uncorrelated bear market. He characterized 2015 and 2016 as a contrasting phase in which BTC engaged “bull mode” while equities chopped bearish, before both markets aligned in 2017. Woo added: “IMO the setup looks similar… BTC liquidity continues to strengthen, while equities starting to show signs of fragility.”
An earlier Glassnode-based comparison with the 2015-2018 cycle identified similar retracement and capital-flow patterns, although it examined different metrics. Bitcoins capacity to move independently partly reflects its market structure, including continuous global trading, a predetermined issuance schedule, and demand drivers that differ from corporate earnings.
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The networks fixed supply of approximately 21 million BTC also separates the asset from equity indexes whose values depend on company profits, interest rates, valuations, and economic expectations.
Woo‘s chart compares bitcoin, the S&P 500, and a long-term correlation series extending to 2010. Source: Willy Woo/GlassnodeAnalyst Challenges Woo’s Decoupling Signal
The historical interpretation drew resistance from Cryptoquant contributor Darkfost, who posted a separate chart tracking bitcoin, the S&P 500, and their correlation coefficient from January 2020 through July 2026. Unlike Woos chart, its latest correlation reading remained in positive territory. The analyst wrote, questioning the timeframe (TF):
“I don‘t know how it’s computed, but I don‘t see this right now. I think you used a high TF average but even this way it’s hard to imagine, because there hasnt been a strong decoupling period in a while.”
The counterchart showed the correlation coefficient repeatedly moving between positive and negative territory rather than entering a prolonged separation. Its most recent reading was below earlier peaks but remained above zero, supporting the argument that bitcoin and the S&P 500 had not strongly decoupled under that calculation.
Correlation measures how closely two assets‘ returns move together, but the result changes with the selected period, data frequency, and treatment of nontrading days. Woo’s image identifies Glassnode as its data provider without displaying those calculation settings. Glassnodes U.S. stock market index series carries daily data back to January 2009, and the index does not trade on weekends or market holidays, when bitcoin keeps trading.
Earlier measurements illustrate how the chosen window can reshape the conclusion. Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone cited a 200-day bitcoin-equity correlation near 0.5 on April 12, a moderately positive relationship over that longer period. The long-term correlation reading does not invalidate a lower recent reading; it incorporates months of earlier co-movement that a shorter calculation may exclude.
Recent Data Show a Shifting Market Relationship
Broader market conditions provide some support for Woos concern about equity fragility, although they do not establish that the 2015 sequence will repeat. Grayscale recently cited record U.S. household equity exposure and elevated stock valuations in its assessment of equity concentration risk, arguing that concentrated portfolios could become more vulnerable to an equity-market reversal.
Other correlation measures indicate that bitcoin has recently moved away from technology stocks while drawing closer to gold. Bitwise data showed bitcoin‘s 90-day correlation with gold moving above 0.5, while Glassnode data showed bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 falling toward zero during the August rally. The changing correlation profile supports the broader decoupling discussion without confirming Woos specific historical comparison.
Woo‘s bull-market thesis ultimately rests on more than the direction of one correlation line. It combines strengthening bitcoin liquidity, weaker equity conditions, and a perceived resemblance to the market sequence that began in 2015. Darkfost’s counterchart shows why the selected timeframe remains central to determining whether that historical parallel currently holds.