Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $76,300 after a 3% daily slip. Long-term holders spent August selling into strength, and that selling has now almost stopped.
That handover left a mark. Coins leaving long-term wallets went to newer buyers, and one level now decides whether they stay in profit.
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Long-Term Holders Sold Harder Than at the Cycle Top
Glassnode data shows long-term holder net position change turning sharply negative in mid-August. The wave reached roughly 260,000 BTC, the deepest level since January 2025.
The same group was previously buying Bitcoin between March and June.
During the late 2025 all-time high, around 170,000 BTC were sold by these long-term holders. So, it looks like they sold more Bitcoin in August, near the $80,000 price mark, compared to when it was $122,000.
This shows how much potential profit many long-term holders missed out on.
Bitcoin long-term holder net position change. Source: Glassnode
However, it looks like the selling has stopped dramatically toward September.
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Short-Term Holders Flipped Into Profit, For a Moment
CryptoQuant data shows who absorbed those coins. Short-term holder (STH) supply in loss had dominated for nine months, peaking above $600 billion.
August reversed that. Supply-side profit jumped to roughly $260 billion, while losses collapsed toward zero.
However, the flip is already under pressure. Profit has since fallen to $168.2 billion, and losses have climbed back to $102.6 billion as BTC drifted lower.
A STH Signal That's Historically Marked The End of Bear Markets
“The bear market trend only truly reverses once profits settle in for good STH and then push them to hold their positions and ride the upside.” – By @Darkfost_Coc pic.twitter.com/zbJbzMloNh
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) September 15, 2026
BTC Price Prediction and the $76,500 Line
The daily chart explains why that flip is wobbling. Bitcoin cleared the descending trendline from its January high, then stalled in early September at $82,613.
That level marks the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the drop from $97,950 to $57,802. Price has since slipped under the 0.5 retracement at $77,876.
Support now sits at $76,500. Below it, the $73,000 to $75,000 band lines up with the 0.382 retracement.
Volume has contracted since late August without a heavy selling day. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has cooled from about 78 to 53.
A hold above $76,500 and a reclaim of $81,000 would keep the profit flip intact. Conversely, a slide toward $73,000 would put most August buyers underwater, as earlier Bitcoin bottom studies warned.
The Four-Year Clock Says a Bottom Is Due
Analyst Root plots Bitcoin on a spiral where angle marks time and radius marks price. One turn covers four years.
Halvings, all-time highs and cycle bottoms each cluster in the same zones. The current arm sits where the 2015, 2018 and 2022 lows formed.
That framing rests entirely on the four-year cycle holding, a premise rival cycles increasingly question.
Spiral Chart. #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/C41n1k7IdY
— Root ???? (@therationalroot) September 14, 2026
Long-term holders have stopped adding supply. Whether that proves enough rests on one number, and $76,500 is where the market answers it.