Live updates: An AI credit bubble could set up bitcoins path to $1 million

WikiBit|2026-08-05

摘要：Bitfinex argues that bitcoins macro bull case hinges on the 10-year U.S. Treasury real yield, noting that this yield has never stayed above 2.5% since before Bitcoin existed. It currently sits at 2.41%, just nine basis points below that threshold, and holding above it would eliminate the macro tailwind. Bond yields have climbed sharply since the Iran conflict began in late February, dampening appetite for risk assets. However, stocks have continued reaching record highs, while bitcoin and gold have lagged behind.

The whole macro case for BTC rests on the 10-year real yield, Bitfinex says

Crypto exchange Bitfinex has said that bitcoins (BTC) bullish case rests on the real or inflation-adjusted yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note.

“The 10-year real yield has not stayed above 2.5% since before Bitcoin existed, so there is no price history above that line. It is now at 2.41%, nine basis points below,” the exchange said on X.

“Hold above 2.5%, and the macro tailwind is gone,” it added.

Bond yields have risen sharply since the onset of the Iran war in late February, weakening the case for risk-taking in financial markets. Yet, stocks have continued to hit new record highs, leaving bitcoin and gold far behind.

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