Quick Take
- Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said crypto will still march forward even if Clarity Act fails to pass this week.
- The U.S. Congress is entering a month-long recess next week, giving Clarity a three-day window to advance through the Senate.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said crypto will continue to march ahead even if the U.S. Clarity Act fails to pass this week — a deadline widely seen as a critical juncture before Congress takes its August recess.
The Senate is scheduled to begin its summer break from Aug. 10 to Sept. 11, giving Clarity a three-day window to clear the chamber before lawmakers depart for the recess.
In a Tuesday blog post, Hougan wrote that the crypto industry will “find a way forward” without the passage of Clarity, arguing that the Securities and Exchange Commission will likely establish rules in place of the bill that are even more crypto-friendly.
Hougan cited recent comments by SEC Chair Paul Atkins, who said the agency is willing and able to push out rules that address many of the same issues as Clarity.
“In the short term, rules from Atkins' SEC are likely to be more crypto- and innovation-friendly than those that would emerge from a bipartisan bill in Congress; they may even be an accelerant,” Hougan said. “The risk is that a future administration appoints a less friendly SEC chair who reverses them.”
Still, Hougan stated that future SEC chairs will not be able to reverse the progress crypto has made so far, adding that traditional finance giants BlackRock, Nasdaq, JPMorgan, Visa and many others have already become immersed in various aspects of blockchain and digital assets.
“In a world where Clarity fails and the SEC lays out rules instead, crypto will have at least two and a half years — until a new administration could potentially install a new SEC chair — to make continued progress,” the Bitwise CIO wrote. “At that point, no SEC chair will be able to put the genie back in the bottle.”
Walking dead
The investment strategist noted that Clarity will enter a “walking dead” state if it fails to pass this week — “nothing can actually kill it, but it will lurch along.”
Clarity may be delayed for further review in the fall or winter of 2026, Hougan said, raising the possibility of the bill being wrapped into a year-end package that forces legislators to vote on an “omnibus” bill.
Hougan stated that this is “bad news” for crypto as extended uncertainty around Clarity will further deter professional investors from entering the crypto market in earnest.
Polymarket currently gives a 23% chance of Clarity passing into law before the end of 2026, down from around 75% in mid-May.
President Donald Trump's alleged crypto conflicts-of-interest continue to be an issue among Democratic lawmakers, while senators and tribal gaming regulators are pushing to include a provision in Clarity that bans sports-related prediction markets.
“To be clear: Congress should pass the bill, and crypto will be better off if it does,” Hougan said. “The Clarity Act is not a perfect bill, but it is a good one. It would boost the U.S. economy, protect investors, improve ethics protections, and help us compete in the era of onchain finance.”