I have kept you updated on Bitcoin’s (BTC) “Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) waves” regularly over the past many months. In my update from last week, I found, “A break above $48788 is still needed to confirm the anticipated run to $90K+.” That break happened on Monday, and as such, the preferred view remains BTC is now in a new bull run to new all-time highs, with an ideal target of $90K+
Figure 1. Bitcoin daily charts with detailed EWP count and technical indicators.
Last week I shared, “if BTC can break back above the recent $45143 high, labeled as green wave-1 in Figure 1 above, it increases the odds the preferred (black) major wave-2 low has already been completed. Full confirmation will be achieved on a break back above the mid-September high at $48788 … we have an excellent stair-step process in place to help assess if the run to $90K has begun.”
I have shown those two steps in Figure 1 above, as well as the minor degree waves BTC should now be in (green) minor-3 of (red) intermediate-i. Albeit not shown, these waves are part of the more significant (black) major wave-3 of (blue) Primary-V of Cycle-3. Thus the current setup to ideally $90-120K will complete a Cycle wave-3, the same degree as the infamous 2017 top (Cycle-1).
As long as BTC can stay above the step-2 and -1 levels, it can move higher. Not shown here either are several simple moving averages (SMAs) and the Ichimoku Cloud, but I can tell you that BTC’s price is well above all of them. When that happens, it signals a new uptrend is underway, the odds of good things to happen (higher prices) increase, and a Bullish EWP count should be preferred.
Bottom line: Last week, I said, “China’s latest “crackdown” will not affect BTC’s long-term ascend as none of its prior ones has had any effect over the last 10+ years,” and that “thus the EWP runs supreme in explaining BTC’s price action.” Action speaks louder than words, and BTC’s rally since then shows my interpretation of the EWP was right, which has helped my premium crypto trading members, and crypto trading alert members stay on the right side of the trade.
However, last week I was cognization that “Bitcoin’s price chart still had a bearish potential.” Still, my preferred view remained, “it has likely bottomed for a wave-2 after having, classically, retraced 50% of the wave-1 (June -> September) rally.” The outlined step-1 and -2 breakouts above $45143 and $48788 happened in quick succession, “tell[ing] me the current three waves down pattern has completed, which increases the odds of a new impulse higher tremendously.” If BTC can hold above these two levels, I see no reason to become bearish because the technical chart setup is bullish. And when the charts are Bullish, I will wear my preferred Bull hat, i.e., carry a Bullish EWP-count, until proven otherwise