TD Cowen cuts David Baileys Nakamoto target 58% after bitcoin outlook reset
Quick TakeThe firm maintained a Buy rating on Nakamoto, with the new target implying roughly 275% upside.Recent refinancing pushed $105 million of principal through June 2027 and lowered borrowing costs. TD Cowen updated its valuation for the David Bailey-led Nakamoto bitcoin treasury company, citing pressure from bitcoins decline on the companys debt-heavy capital structure, but still maintained its Buy rating. The banks analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete lowered their split-adjusted price target for the Nasdaq-listed Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA) to $17. The new target still implies nearly 275% upside from NAKAs current price. Nakamoto went through a 1-for-40 reverse split in May, making TDs previous $1 target equivalent to $40 on the current basis. Todays $17 price target represents a 58% cut to that outlook. TD Cowens revised base case assumed bitcoin can climb back to $100,000 by the end of 2026, which is roughly 25% off its $126,000 all-time high recorded last October. The firm also expects Nakamoto to suspend additional bitcoin (BTC) purchases until 2027. “We continue to view bitcoin holdings as the primary driver of value,” Vitanza and Navarrete wrote in a Monday research note. The analysts said Nakamoto‘s debt and preferred securities make its common shares more sensitive to changes in bitcoin’s









