Fidelity Flags 516% Solana Rebound Signal With One Major Caveat
The firm highlighted that periods when SOLs NUPL traded near -0.67 have aligned with a median one-year return of 516%. The three-year compound annual growth rate at that level was 62%. However, Fidelity cautioned that the forward-return data is based on only 10 historical observations for the one-year window and 6 for the three-year window. This highlights both Solana‘s relatively short track record and the “extreme nature of this metric’s current value.” The report also found that the correlation between current NUPL levels and future returns remains weak. Specifically, the relationship with one-year forward returns is zero, while the three-year correlation is -0.16, indicating a weak inverse relationship over longer periods. This limited and inconsistent relationship aligns with Fidelitys broader view that lower NUPL levels are “generally more positive.” Still, the firm emphasized that past patterns may not hold going forward. “Importantly, the historical relationship between SOLs NUPL score and forward returns may not persist,” Fidelity said. Solana Network Activity Tells a Different Story Despite the price weakness, Solana network usage has accelerated. Monthly active addresses rose 50% in Q1 2026, and new addresses jumped 35%. “Solana usage has surged even amidst the downturn in asset price. This showcases Solana as a growing financial ecosystem with users