USD/JPY 2026 Forecast: “14-Point Forex Civil War” Erupt
USD/JPY 2026 major bank year-end 2026 forecasts range from 150 to 164, fueling a “14-point Forex Civil War.”Banks assume the BOJ raises rates to 1.00-1.25% and the Fed cuts to 3.50-3.75%, in line with OIS swap pricing. A violent unwind of the 7.5T yen carry trade could trigger sharp risk-off moves across global liquidity and crypto markets. The worlds most-traded Asian currency pair, USD/JPY, sits at the center of a major policy clash heading into 2026. Leading banks such as J.P. Morgan and Scotiabank disagreed sharply on their direction, with forecasts spanning from 150 to 164. Diverging monetary policies from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the Federal Reserve are driving this split and reshaping global liquidity flows. Banks Split on 2026 USD/JPY Year-End Targets According to sources, major banks are split on 2026 USD/JPY year-end targets, with forecasts ranging from 150 to 164, fueling a “14-point Forex Civil War.” J.P. Morgan forecasts year-end at 164, Scotiabank at 150, and ING at a gradual decline to 153 by Q4. This sharp divergence in USD/JPY 2026 forecasts highlights ongoing uncertainty in the worlds most-traded Asian currency pair. This wide divergence reflects heightened uncertainty over the yens trajectory against sustained US dollar strength. USD/JPY is