US April CPI Report Sparks Fresh Fears of Fed Rate Hikes in 2026
Markets now price in growing odds of Fed rate hikes as April CPI data approaches.Rising oil and gasoline prices continue adding pressure to U.S. inflation expectations.Softer wage and shelter inflation may help limit further Fed tightening concerns. The upcoming release of the U.S. April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report has raised attention on the Federal Reserves next policy move, as financial markets continue to price in a prolonged period of high interest rates. Current expectations from major investment banks indicate that the Fed is unlikely to begin cutting rates before 2027, while market participants have also started assigning higher probabilities to possible rate hikes later this year. The inflation report is expected to provide further clarity on whether price pressures tied to energy costs and core inflation trends could change the central banks policy direction. According to CME FedWatch data, markets currently assign a 97.7% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged in June and a 94.6% probability of no change in July. The probability that rates will remain unchanged in September stands at 89.2%. However, traders are also pricing in a 5.7% chance of a 25-basis-point rate increase in September, rising to 14% in October and 23.7% by December. Related: