Bitcoin Pumps Hardest on US Holidays, CoinGecko Finds
Bitcoin (BTC) delivers its strongest single-day returns on US federal holidays, according to a CoinGecko study covering May 2013 to May 2026, with New Years Day producing an average next-day return of +2.01% and an 84.6% win rate. The research analyzed 4,753 daily price observations and found that US holidays produced an average next-day return of +0.77 %, roughly four times the +0.19% baseline for non-holidays. Holiday Effect Skews Heavily Positive On the win-rate side, Columbus Day also hit 84.6%, with a +1.70% next-day average. Christmas Day produced a smaller +1.46% gain on a 53.8% win rate, while Labor Day registered +1.22% across a 69.2% win rate, according to CoinGecko. Two holidays buck the trend. Martin Luther King Jr. Day averages -0.84%, dragged down by a -18.65% Bitcoin drop on January 15, 2018. Independence Day averages -0.26%, with both holidays posting win rates below 50%. Bitcoin Next-Day Return By Holiday. Source: Coingecko CoinGecko researchers attribute the New Years Day signal to fresh January capital allocations and December tax-loss selling reversals. The effect held even as BTC prices ranged from $313 in 2015 to $93,507 in 2025, despite the split 2026 price outlook between bulls and bears. Day-of-Week Effect Fades Over Longer Horizons Within the trading week, Monday and Wednesday