On July 19th, cryptocurrency analyst PlanB released an update to the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) valuation model on social media. The update stated, “Based on the latest data and the average S2F ratio and BTC price during the current halving cycle: The model predicts a Bitcoin price of $54,000, while the actual average price is $31,000.During the 2016-2020 halving cycle, the model predicted a Bitcoin price of $4,400, while the actual average price was $5,800. For me, the model's margin of error is within an acceptable range, and S2F is not ineffective. However, I believe it is a personal decision. I am focusing on the Bitcoin price reaching $500,000 in the next halving cycle (with a potentially large margin of error).”
PlanB is a popular blogger known for using models to predict the long-term price of Bitcoin. They have gained fame for making several accurate predictions and have amassed a following of 1.8 million followers on Twitter.
In 2021, PlanB used the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model to predict that the price of Bitcoin would reach $100,000 by the end of the year. However, the actual price of Bitcoin deviated significantly from this prediction. It is worth noting that while the S2F model has gained attention and followers, it is not without its critics, and market conditions can often deviate from the model's projections.