Shareholders in Meta, Tesla, Netflix, and SpaceX get quarterly results Tuesday and Wednesday, after the US market closes. Nasdaq values the first three at about $3.6 trillion combined.
Forecasts, not beats, have moved these stocks lately. In July, Netflix topped profit estimates by a cent, then fell about 9% after hours on a weaker outlook.
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How Much AI Spending Must Tesla, Meta, and SpaceX Earnings Justify？
Meta plans $130 billion to $145 billion of equipment and data center spending in 2026, according to its results.
In the second quarter, $31.1 billion of spending left Meta just $784 million in free cash flow, the cash left after investment. Its shares fell over 7% after hours as profit also missed forecasts.
Meta also expects a roughly $10 billion legal charge this quarter. It stems from a settlement worth up to $18 billion over claims its apps harmed children.
SpaceX spent $18.4 billion in the second quarter, $15.8 billion of it on AI, and lost $541 million, its filing shows.
Still, Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen said the AI unit turned a $1.1 billion profit on an adjusted basis.
Much of that money flows to chipmaker Nvidia. SpaceX is now reportedly seeking $40 billion in debt to buy its chips.
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Tesla already beat delivery forecasts, handing over 486,532 cars. However, in July it earned $0.33 per share against a $0.55 estimate as margins slipped.
What Would Prove the AI Spending Is Paying Off？
For Meta, the test is whether its $130 billion to $145 billion spending range rises.
For SpaceX, it is progress toward a target Elon Musk set in August. ARR, or annual recurring revenue, measures a yearly sales pace.
“we are expecting to reach a $100 billion-plus ARR in December of this year,” Elon Musk stated.
For Tesla, it is whether margins recover. Analysts tracked by Nasdaq expect $0.21 per share, down from $0.37 a year ago.
Netflixs test is different. It forecast $12.86 billion in revenue and about $3 billion in 2026 ad sales, its shareholder letter shows.
Last week, strong bank earnings failed to lift bank shares, a gap Jim Cramer flagged. This week, the AI spenders face the same test.