Bitcoin's ledger is a chain of blocks, each one a batch of transactions added by miners, firms running warehouses of specialised computers that compete to produce the next one. They are paid in newly issued bitcoin plus the fees attached to those transactions, and a block arrives roughly every ten minutes.
That ten-minute pace is not automatic. The network sets a difficulty level, which is how much computing work a miner must do to produce a valid block, and recalculates it every 2,016 blocks. If blocks have been arriving too fast, the work gets harder. Too slow, and it gets easier.
At normal speed, 2,016 blocks takes about two weeks.
The longer the fork sits still, the further away its escape gets. (Shaurya Malwa/CoinDesk)
Two blocks were produced on that chain. Then it stopped, because mining it costs exactly what mining bitcoin costs — as both chains having inherited the same difficulty when they parted, while paying in a coin that has no market, no exchange listing and no buyers.
It also cannot make mining easier on itself without first completing 2,016 blocks at its current pace. A live monitor now estimates that adjustment at 6.3 years away, up from 350 days on Sunday.
The number is calculated from recent block times, so every idle hour pushes it further out. Bitcoin's next adjustment is due in 12 days.