Gabe Selby, head of research at CF Benchmarks, told CoinDesk that bitcoin moves hardest when inflation data forces a rethink on rates, gaining an average 3.25% across the three occasions in the past nine releases when inflation came in below expectations.
A downside surprise on July 14 was followed by a 4.24% rally. “An in-line report can remove a tail risk,” Selby said. “It takes a genuine surprise to create a catalyst.” He further sees room for the Fed to wait, with shelter costs up just 0.1%, energy down 1.5% and gasoline down 2.9%, and some goods categories now lapping last year's tariff-driven increases.
The next tests are the Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers later this month, the Sept. 4 jobs report and the Sept. 11 inflation release.
Equities took the news better. MSCI's Asia Pacific index rose almost 1% with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix the biggest contributors, and Korea's Kospi rallied almost 4% into a technical bull market, up 22% in ten days.
The mood was not uniform, with Cisco falling over 4% after hours on underwhelming earnings and Cerebras Systems dropping 17% on declining hardware sales.
Brent crude snapped a six-day run of gains, easing after a stretch that had taken it to $90 a barrel. That came as an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps adviser, General Mohammad Reza Naqdi, said Iran was preparing to carry out operations on U.S. soil under a new military doctrine.
