This week, Bitcoin (BTC) has been hovering around $63,000, looking almost frozen in place. Spot trading volume has dropped to the lowest level since 2019! The market has entered “garbage time” — nobody is trading. Its more hypnotic than watching a group of elderly people practicing Tai Chi.
So, what are whales doing？
On the surface, everything looks calm. But beneath the water, the whales are fighting!
Some major players are quietly accumulating, scooping up 46,000 BTC in the past 60 days. Meanwhile, another whale opened a massive leveraged long position around $63,700, pushing the position size to nearly $110 million.
At the same time, another group of large holders has been aggressively selling and dumping.
The market is showing extreme disagreement between bulls and bears:
One side is shouting “buy,” while the other side is selling hard.
Basically, they are all calling each other idiots.
Where is institutional money going？
The ETF data looks impressive — 8 consecutive days of net inflows sounds bullish.
But when you look closer, the entire trend is being driven almost entirely by BlackRock.
Other institutions are either seeing zero inflows or experiencing outflows.
If BlackRocks buying momentum slows down, this market could flip very quickly.
Macro environment:
The situation is getting complicated.
- Tanker tensions around Iran are raising geopolitical risks;
- The Federal Reserve remains divided, with some officials still warning about inflation risks and keeping the possibility of tighter policy alive;
- August has historically been one of Bitcoins weakest months, with an average decline of around 8%.
This market is basically facing a giant bowl of uncertainty.
Conclusion & Key Levels(For reference only. Do your own research and trade at your own risk.)
The short-term trend is slightly bearish.
Unless BTC makes a strong breakout above $65,500, another pullback is likely.
BTC Strategy:
- Short around $64,500
- Stop loss: $65,500
- First target: $62,500
- If BTC breaks below $62,000, next target: $60,000
ETH Strategy:
ETH is likely to follow BTCs direction.
- Short around $1,900
- Stop loss: $1,940
- First target: $1,850
- If ETH breaks below $1,820, next target: $1,725
Remember:
The longer the market compresses in a low-volume sideways range, the more violent the eventual breakout tends to be.
Whether you are bullish or bearish:
Never fight the market. Avoid holding losing positions. Survival comes first.