The US-Iran ceasefire is set to expire with Hormuz shipping frozen, reviving the oil risk
The 60-day US-Iran ceasefire is set to expire Monday with no deal and the two sides at an impasse, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has ground to a near halt.
Only five cargo ships passed through the waterway on Saturday and none registered on Sunday, per Kpler data, against 31 the prior weekend.
Traffic is down about 90% from before the war began in February, through a strait that normally carries a fifth of the world's oil.
Tehran says it has struck a separate deal with Oman to reopen the strait, but only if the US lifts its naval blockade, per CNBC.
The read for crypto runs through oil. A frozen strait and a lapsing ceasefire keep the risk of an oil-price spike alive, and higher crude feeds the inflation pressure that has kept the Fed leaning hawkish and capped bitcoin all summer.
That's the tail risk sitting against the returning-demand case, a supply shock that would firm the dollar and yields at exactly the moment ETF flows are trying to rebuild the trade.
Bitcoin held near $63,300 on Monday, still boxed below $64,000.