Summary
- The S&P 500 and Nasdaq, priced in bitcoin, just broke above their 200-week moving averages for the first time since 2012, a level that's capped every prior stock rally against BTC.
- The shift raises suggests that days of parabolic BTC gains may be behind us.
For years, bitcoin trounced stocks and most other assets, and supporters pointed to the outperformance as proof the largest cryptocurrency was also the best store of value. Now, one chart suggests that edge may be fading.
That chart is the S&P 500-to-bitcoin ratio, which measures how much bitcoin it takes to buy the index.
Today it takes roughly 0.12 BTC, down from more than 300 BTC in 2012. The ratio has generally dropped since BTCs inception in 2010, with the 200-week simple moving average, a barometer of long-term trend, acting as a ceiling. There were brief instances of stocks outperforming BTC, lifting the ratio, but never beyond that average.
Until now.
In recent weeks, the ratio hasn't just topped the 200-week average, it's established a firm foothold above it, clearly visible on the far right of the chart. The behavior is not isolated to the S&P 500, either. The Nasdaq/BTC ratio is showing the same first-ever crossover above the 200-week average.