Shiba Inu recently reported a -1,813% move on spot flows, which appears disastrous at first, but the figure alone is deceptive in the absence of context. In reality, it shows a dramatic relative change between inflows and outflows over a brief period of time rather than a true collapse capital.
Issues of smaller baseline
A small baseline can cause percentage-based flow metrics to blow up. The resulting percentage change can reach extreme values like -1,813% without requiring massive absolute volume — if inflows were low during a prior interval and outflows suddenly spike.
Source: Coinglass
It is, in essence, a denominator problem. Even a small move results in an exaggerated percentage print when the starting point is near zero. This seems to be exactly what's going on.
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Shiba Inu is not going through an abrupt systemic collapse related to that number, when looking at the larger market data. In fact, exchange reserves have been increasing; they are currently over 81 trillion $SHIB, indicating a rise in the supply of tokens on trading platforms. That usually means that there is more pressure to sell, not necessarily panic, but also not bullish accumulation.
Dynamic resistances exist
$SHIB is still trading below important moving averages on the price chart, with the 50 and 100 EMA serving as dynamic resistance. After a protracted decline, the asset recently created a small consolidation structure in an effort to stabilize, but there has not yet been a clear breakout.
Momentum indicators are neutral to slightly weak, and the price is hovering in a small range, indicating a lack of strong directional conviction.
The interpretation is important here. The main risk factor is not the -1,813% flow reading. The structural decline and the consistent rise in exchange-held supply are the more fitting indicators. These are the circumstances that typically precede ongoing stress, as opposed to recuperation.
$SHIB is not currently exhibiting any indications of a reversal. Although it is stabilizing, the upside potential is limited by supply building on exchanges and resistance. While the situation is not as dire as the headline figure implies, it is also not very promising.
The asset is still in a precarious position, and a significant recovery would necessitate both a decrease in exchange reserves and a break above important resistance levels.