Renowned cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen, in his latest market analysis, examined Bitcoin‘s price movements. Cowen noted that despite recent criticism and ridicule, Bitcoin’s famous “four-year cycle” pattern continues to function flawlessly.
An experienced analyst evaluating Bitcoin noted that the market cycle in 2026 is a less volatile replica of the 2018 bear market.
Cowens charts show that price movements since the beginning of the year almost perfectly mirror those of 2018. According to the analyst, the local low in February, the rising lows in March and April, the rejection from the 200-day moving average in May, and the drop below the previous low in June all occurred on the same timeline in both years.
The proportional similarity between the prices is quite remarkable:
- The lowest level seen in late June 2018 was around $5,700.
- The low seen at the end of June/beginning of July 2026 was exactly ten times that, at the level of $57,000.
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Cowen explained why many investors are so pessimistic about the current downturn, summarizing it with peak psychology. When Bitcoin tested $20,000 in 2018, there was great enthusiasm in the market. However, despite the price peaking around $126,000 in the 2016 cycle, the expected massive altcoin rally didn‘t materialize, so this enthusiasm didn’t resonate with investors. Cowen stated, “Markets peaked with complacency, not enthusiasm. Thats why the current downturns make people feel so much worse.”
Sharing his expectations for the coming months, the analyst stated that July typically opens a “short-term window of strengthening” for cryptocurrencies, but that weakness could be seen again in August and September.
When asked where the market would reach its final bottom, Cowen responded by giving a specific date. In the 2018 cycle, the final bottom was seen in December, but because the peak of the current cycle occurred last October, Cowen argued that there is a very strong possibility that the new cycle bottom will be seen this October.
*This is not investment advice.